|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]任梦依.龙门山地区的地震活动性广义帕累托模型构建*[J].地震研究,2018,41(02):226-232.
　REN Mengyi.The Establishment of Generalized Pareto Distribution Model of Seismicity in Longmenshan Region[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2018,41(02):226-232.
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龙门山地区的地震活动性广义帕累托模型构建*(PDF/HTML)

《地震研究》[ISSN:1000-0666/CN:53-1062/P]

卷:
41
期数:
2018年02期
页码:
226-232
栏目:
出版日期:
2018-04-20

文章信息/Info

Title:
The Establishment of Generalized Pareto Distribution Model of Seismicity in Longmenshan Region
作者:
任梦依
(中国地震局地球物理研究所,北京 100081)
Author(s):
REN Mengyi
(Institute of Geophysics,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100081,China)
关键词:
地震活动性;  广义帕累托分布;  震级上限;  龙门山地区
Keywords:
seismic activity;  generalized pareto distribution;  upper magnitude limit;  Longmenshan Region
分类号:
P315.5
DOI:
-
摘要:
利用1930—2016年龙门山地区M≥4.5历史地震目录,通过时空窗法减少余震对统计结果的影响,构建了该地区广义帕累托分布的超出量分布模型,估计了龙门山地区震级上限。结果表明:广义帕累托分布较好地拟合了龙门山地区强震数据,形状参数估计均为负值,最大震级分布存在有限上界,震级上限为8.3。
Abstract:
Choosing Longmenshan region as the case study area,using the historical earthquake catalogue with magnitude 4.5 or above, from the year 1930 to 2016,reducing the impact of aftershocks by the method of space and time window,this paper establishes an excess distribution model of Generalized Pareto Distribution,and it estimates the upper magnitude limit of Longmenshan region. The result indicates that the model is well fitting for the earthquake data and the estimate value of shape parameter is less than zero,which means that the maximum magnitude distribution has a limited upper bound. The upper magnitude limit is 8.3. The result can be a reference for earthquake zoning and seismic hazard analysis researches.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2018-01-15
基金项目:中国地震局地球物理研究所基本科研业务费专项《潜源区地震活动性广义极值模型构建方法研究——以龙门山地震带为例》(DQJB17B07)资助.

更新日期/Last Update: 2018-04-23