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作者:: 陈棋福¹; 2; 3; 李乐⁴; 姜金钟⁵; (1.中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所中国科学院地球与行星物理重点实验室,北京 100029; 2.中国科学院地球科学研究院,北京 100029; 3.中国科学院大学地球与行星科学学院,北京 100049; 4.中国地震局地震预测研究所,北京 100036; 5.云南省地震局,云南昆明 650224)

Author(s):: CHEN Qifu¹; 2; 3; LI Le⁴; JIANG Jinzhong⁵; (1.Key Laboratory of Earth and Planetary Physics,Institute of Geology and Geophysics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China)(2.Innovation Academy for Earth Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China)(3.College of Earthand Planetary Sciences,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)(4.Institute of Earthquake Forecasting,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100036,China)(5.Yunnan Earthquake Agency,Kunming 650224,Yunnan,China)

Keywords:: seismogenic pattern; deep deformation; repeating earthquakes; strong earthquake hazard

摘要:: 针对地震预测所面临的地球内部“不可入”和大地震“非频发”问题,对重复地震探测获得的孕震深处滑动速率与浅表观测的结果进行对比分析,采用空间换时间的方式初步构建了中国大陆强震孕育深处的变形模式; 还通过一些强震事例展示了利用重复地震进行陆内断裂带深部变形的原位探测的优势,并提出应对断裂闭锁段和深浅构造变形差异显著地区的强震危险性加以深入研究。

Abstract:: In view of problems of the “inaccessible” deep Earth and “non-frequent” strong earthquakes in the earthquake prediction,this paper finalizes a deep deformation pattern of strong earthquake cycles in mainland China based on the comparative analysis of the slip rates inferred from repeating earthquakes and from surface GPS and geological data by piecing together slip rate‘snapshots’ from different stages of the earthquake cycle.Slip rate increases with depth and accelerated slip were thought to have preceded a number of recent large subduction zone earthquakes and the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake,and repeating earthquakes may document short-term precursory slip at depth.We suggest that slip rates at seismogenic depths are of critical importance in seismic hazard analysis.Repeating earthquakes can be regarded as “deep creepmeters” that measure the in-situ deep slip rate of active faults.The potential earthquake hazard of locked faults with unusually high inferred deep slip rates should be paid more attention.