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Title:: Predictive Efficiency Tests of Moderate Earthquakes with Sizes M_S≥4.5 in Low Seismicity Regions within Sichuan Basin

作者:: 易桂喜¹; 周龙泉²; 张浪平²; 龙锋¹; 宫悦¹; (1.四川省地震局,四川成都 610041; 2.中国地震局监测预报司,北京 100086)

Author(s):: YI Guixi¹; ZHOU Longquan²; ZHANG Langping²; LONG Feng¹; GONG Yue¹; (1.Sichuan Earthquake Agency,Chengdu 610041,Sichuan,China)(2.Department of Earthquake Monitoring and Prediction,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100086,China)

Keywords:: Sichuan Basin; low seismicity regions; M_S≥4.5 earthquakes; predictive efficiency

摘要:: 自2008年汶川M_S8.0地震发生以来,四川盆地内部及盆地边缘发生了一系列M_S≥4.5地震,部分地震发生之后,四川及邻区又发生了M_S≥6.0强震。2019年6月17日四川长宁M_S6.0地震后,对四川盆地内部及盆地边缘M_S≥4.5地震的预测意义进行了研究和疏理。通过给定不同的预测规则,对上述M_S≥4.5地震的预测效能进行了统计检验,结果表明:仅四川盆地内部,以三台、梓潼等区域为代表的历史少震与弱震区M_S≥4.5地震对四川及邻区未来半年内发生M_S≥6.5地震具有显著的预测意义。

Abstract:: Since the 2008 Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake,a series of moderate earthquakes with size M_S≥4.5 occurred in the interior and the margin of Sichuan Basin.It has been observed that some M_S≥6.0 strong earthquakes in Sichuan and its surroundings followed a part of the M_S≥4.5 earthquakes in the interior and the margin of Sichuan Basin.After the Sichuan Changning M_S6.0 earthquake on June 17,2019,the statistical significance of predictive efficiency for the moderate earthquakes in the interior and the margin of Sichuan Basin has been systematically investigated.Under different prediction rules,statistical tests for predictive efficiency of the M_S≥4.5 earthquakes have been done,and the results indicate that only some M_S≥4.5 events occurred in low seismicity regions,such as Santai,Zitong,have statistically significance of predictive efficiency,and can be a predictor for M_S≥6.5 strong earthquakes within half a year in Sichuan and its adjacent areas.