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Title:: Retrospective Study of Moderate-earthquake Prediction in Beijing Based on Earthquake Consultation Information

Author(s):: ZHU Hongbin; LI Hong; YUE Xiaoyuan; LI Juzhen; WANG Lihong; WU Minjie; ZHONG Shijun; (Beijing Earthquake Agency,Beijing 100080,China)

Keywords:: Beijing and its vincinity; moderate earthquakes; backtracking of earthquake prediction; indicators of earthquake anomalies; indicators of earthquake prediction

摘要:: 依据北京市地震局1996年以来的原始会商资料,以北京及周边地区1996年以来发生的8次中等地震为例,针对震前异常的产生和发展过程进行回溯性研究,追溯相关异常指标的形成过程和预测实效。通过震例研究和预测效能评估,提取近南北向小震条带等多项适用于北京地区的异常指标,为建立北京地区中等地震预测指标体系提供参考。中等地震异常指标和预测指标的形成过程为:在日常震情跟踪中发现异常——经过初步震例研究提出异常指标——通过预测实践验证且预测评分较高的指标,就确定为预测指标。中等地震预测指标的确定至少需要一次预测实践验证。

Abstract:: By analyzing the original consultation data of earthquake prediction from Beijing Earthquake Agency since 1996,we take 8 historical moderate earthquake events in this period in Beijing and its vicinity to carry out retrospective studies on occurrence and evolution of anomalies before these earthquakes,and review the determination of relevant indicators for the anomalies and their effectiveness for earthquake prediction.Then by study of earthquake cases and evaluation of the indicators' effectiveness,we obtain several indicators for earthquake anomalies in Beijing such as north-south trending stripe of small earquakes.These indicators can help establish a system of predictive indicators in Beijing.The procedure of determining anomalous indicators and forecasting indicators of moderate earthquakes is:①finding anomalies by daily earthquake-tracking analysis,②putting forward indicators of earthquake anomalies after a case study,and ③ choosing those which have been tested with high scores as forecasting indicators.The forecasting indicators of medium earthquakes need testing at least once by earthquake-prediction practice before they are determined.