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Title:: Analysis of the Anomalies and Earthquake-prediction Efficiency of Hydrogen in Groundwater in Panjin 1st Well,Liaoning Province

作者:: 王喜龙¹; 杨梦尧²; 郭红霞¹; 刘建光¹; (1.辽宁省地震局,辽宁沈阳 110034; 2.辽宁省汇泽矿业技术咨询有限公司,辽宁沈阳 110035)

Author(s):: WANG Xilong¹; YANG Mengyao²; GUO Hongxia¹; LIU Jianguang¹; (1.Liaoning Earthquake Agency,Shenyang 110034,Liaoning,China)(2.Huize Mining Technology Consulting Company of Liaoning Province,Shenyang 110035,Liaoning,China)

Keywords:: hydrogen; characteristics of hydrodegen anomalies; earthquake-prediction efficiency; Panjin

摘要:: 为了对2020年辽宁盘锦台盘一井氢气出现的异常及预报效能进行分析,在排除外界干扰的基础上,结合地震活动性特征及应用临界慢化方法对氢气进行异常识别。结果表明:盘一井氢气浓度出现的高值变化主要与辽南地区2019年10月以来的构造活动增强以及盖州震群地震活动增强有一定成因关联,此次异常对应了2020年唐山古冶5.1级地震。应用R值评分方法对氢气预报效能进行检验,计算得到盘一井氢气R值为0.48,通过效能检验,表明盘一井氢气对于辽宁地区地震预测具有较好指示意义。

Abstract:: In order to analyze the anomalous characteristics and the earthquake-prediction efficiency of the hydrogen in Panjin 1st well,Liaoning Province,we firstly eliminate the background interference with hydrogen,then we discriminate hydrogen anomalies by the help of seismicity and the principle of critical slow-down in the stuy area.The results show that the anomalous,high-value fluctuation of hydrogen concentration in Panjin 1st well since October 2019 was closely related with the enhancement of the tectonic activity in South Liaoning Province and the Bohai Rim region,and the enhancement of the earthquake swarm in Gaizhou region.This high-value anomaly of the hydrogen is supposed to correspond to the 2020 Guye M_S5.1 earthquake.Further,we use R-value to test the prediction efficiency of the hydrogen in Panjin 1st well.We get that the R-value of hydrogen in Panjin 1st well is 0.48,Which is higher than the R-value of the underground fluid in Liaoning Province.This suggests that the hydrogen in Panjin 1st well can be used for earthquake prediction in Liaoning Province.