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Title:: Evaluation of the Severity of the Natural Disaster Loss in Yunnan from 1978 to 2020

Author(s):: ZHANG Fanghao; ZHANG Yuanshuo; HE Shifang; XU Junzu; CAO Yanbo; DU Haoguo; DENG Shurong; (Yunnan Earthquake Agency,Kunming 650224,Yunnan,China)

Keywords:: natural disaster; synthetic indicators of the disaster losses; disaster losses; entropy weight; geometric means; Yunnan Province

摘要:: 引入客观赋权的熵权法和几何平均模型,对综合灾情指数法的评估过程进行改进。基于改进的综合灾情指数法,利用1978—2020年云南省9种主要自然灾害灾情数据,以及社会经济统计数据,选取人员受灾、农作物受灾、房屋倒损、经济损失4个因子7个具体指标构建综合灾情的绝对和相对指数,对灾害损失程度进行分级评估。结果表明:从灾害损失总量来看,损失较重的区域分布在滇东的昭通—曲靖—文山一带,以及滇西的大理—楚雄—普洱地区。从社会经济受影响的程度来看,损失较重的区域分布在滇西的迪庆—怒江—丽江—楚雄—普洱一带,以及滇东的昭通、文山地区。改进的综合灾情指数在指标权重确定、指数计算和损失程度分级过程中避免了人为的主观任意性,评估结果与区域实际情况相符,表明该方法具有较好的实用性和有效性。

Abstract:: We firstly improve the evaluation process of the comprehensive disaster-index method with the entropy weight method and the geometric mean model.Then we select 7 indicators of 4 elements of the disaster losses including casualties,damage to crops,house collapse,and economic losses from the data of 9 major natural disasters in Yunnan Province from 1978 to 2020 according to the statistics of the Emergency Management Department,social-economic statistics released by the statistics department,and using these 7 indicators we build the absolute and relative indexes of comprehensive disaster losses.Finally,we assess and grade the severity of disaster losses with the improved comprehensive disaster-index method.The results suggest that in terms of total disaster losses,Zhaotong City,Qujing City,Wenshan Prefecture in east Yunnan,and Dali Prefecture,Chuxiong Prefecture,and Pu'er City in west Yunnan suffered from heavy losses.In terms of the impact on social economy,Diqing Prefecture,Nujiang Prefecture,Lijiang City,Chuxiong Prefecture and Pu'er City in west Yunnan,and Zhaotong City,Wenshan Prefecture in east Yunnan suffered from heavy losses.The improved comprehensive disaster-index method helps to avoid the arbitrariness in the whole process of weight determination,index calculation and the loss grading; the assessed losses are in line with the real disaster losses.The improved comprehensive disaster-index method is practicable and effective.