|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]许瑞杰,贾召亮,郑 川,等.滇西地区基于单体建筑的震后人员死亡评估方法研究[J].地震研究,2023,46(03):394-402.[doi:10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2023.0039]
　XU Ruijie,JIA Zhaoliang,ZHENG Chuan,et al.Study on the Assessment Method of Post-Earthquake Fatality in Western Yunnan Based on the Single Building[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2023,46(03):394-402.[doi:10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2023.0039]
点击复制

滇西地区基于单体建筑的震后人员死亡评估方法研究(PDF/HTML)

《地震研究》[ISSN:1000-0666/CN:53-1062/P]

卷:
46
期数:
2023年03期
页码:
394-402
栏目:
出版日期:
2023-09-01

文章信息/Info

Title:
Study on the Assessment Method of Post-Earthquake Fatality in Western Yunnan Based on the Single Building
作者:
许瑞杰; 贾召亮; 郑 川; 吴艳梅; 壮 延; 曹彦波; 李兆隆
(云南省地震局,云南 昆明 650224)
Author(s):
XU Ruijie; JIA Zhaoliang; ZHENG Chuan; WU Yanmei; ZHUANG Yan; CAO Yanbo; LI Zhaolong
(Yunnan Earthquake Agency,Kunming 650224,Yunnan,China)
关键词:
单体建筑;  致死性;  死亡评估;  漾濞地震;  滇西地区
Keywords:
single building;  lethality;  fatality assessment;  the Yangbi earthquake;  western Yunnan
分类号:
P315.94
DOI:
10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2023.0039
摘要:
震后死亡人数是震后应急响应和救援工作的重要基础。为提高震后人员死亡评估精度,从云南县(区)城镇化率、建筑面积和建筑楼层数考虑,提出了一种基于单体建筑的人口分配方法; 以建筑的致死性矩阵为基础,使用滇西地区建筑数据和历史地震死亡人数计算本地化修正系数,得到了该地区基于建筑类型的人员死亡评估方法; 以2021年云南漾濞6.4级地震为例,对评估结果进行了检验和三维可视化。结果表明:①基于单体建筑的人口分布空间比传统的公里格网更加精细; ②基于单体建筑评估的受灾人口和实际受灾人口之间的相对误差为3.7%,精度较好; ③基于单体建筑致死性评估的漾濞地震人员死亡评估结果为0～3人,符合实际情况; ④三维表达能够增加信息表达的直观性和丰富程度。
Abstract:
Post-earthquake fatalities are an important basis for post-earthquake emergency response and rescue.To improve the accuracy of the assessment of post-earthquake fatality,a population distribution method based on the urbanization rate,built-up area,and the number of floors of the buildings in the counties of Yunnan province is proposed.Then,with the building-fatality matrix and the localized correction coefficient calculated by using the building data and historical earthquake fatalities in the western Yunnan region,the fatality-evaluation method based on the building type in this region is obtained,and the results are examined and visualized.The results show that:①The population-distribution space based on the single building is more refined than the result got by the traditional kilometer-grid; ②The relative error between the assessed affected-population based on the single building and the actual affected-population is 3.7%; the accuracy is high; ③Based on the method proposed in this paper,the fatality assessed in the Yangbi MS5.2 earthquake event on May 21,2021 is 0-3,which is in line with the actual statistics; ④Three-dimensional expression can increase the visualization and richness of information expression.

参考文献/References:


陈黛,白鹏飞,蔡冬雪.2017.地震灾害人员伤亡预测模型研究[J].数学的实践与认识,47(13):208-215.
陈尧.2015.破坏性地震人员伤亡快速评估方法研究[D].哈尔滨:中国地震局工程力学研究所.
冯志泽,何钧,陈惠云.1996.地震人员伤亡预测研究——以鲁南地区为例[J].地震学刊,16(1):58-62.
郭少文,雷奇果,周坤.2022.极震区烈度的 ELM预测模型[J].华南地震,42(1):140-146.
李媛媛,翁文国,张小乐,等.2015.云南地区地震死亡人数快速估算:以鲁甸6.5级地震为例[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),55(3):368-372.
聂高众,夏朝旭,范熙伟,等.2021.基于历史地震数据的建筑物致死性水平研究[J].地质科学,56(4):1250-1266.
王晨晖,袁颖,刘立申,等.2019.基于PCA-GSM-SVM的地震伤亡人数预测[J].华北地震科学,37(3):25-30.
王野,于建杰,余世舟.2021.基于切比雪夫不等式地震人员伤亡评估[J].自然灾害学报,30(3):63-68.
夏朝旭.2020.基于实地调查的地震人员死亡致死性评估技术研究[D].北京:中国地震局地质研究所.
闫佳琦,陈相兆,孙柏涛.2021.地震人员伤亡评估方法及损失评估系统综述[J].工程力学,38(12):1-16.
云南省民政厅,云南省地图院.2021.云南省行政区划简册(2020)[M].长沙:湖南地图出版社.
张方浩,蒋飞蕊,李永强,等.2016.云南地区地震烈度评估模型研究[J].中国地震,32(3):511-521.
张露露,何雅枫,宴金旭,等.2021.基于无人机影像的漾濞地震房屋震害定量评估[J].华南地震,41(3):76-81.
郑山锁,张睿明,陈飞,等.2019.地震人员伤亡评估理论及应用研究[J].世界地震工程,35(1):87-96.
周光全,非明伦,毛燕,等.2011.云南地震灾害特征及经济损失评估技术研究[M].昆明:云南科技出版社.
Asim K M,Idris A,Iqbal T,et al.2018.Earthquake prediction model using support vector regressor and hybrid neural networks[J].Plos ONE,13(7):e0199004.
Chao X X,Gao Z N,Xi W F.et al.2022.A new model for the quantitative assessment of earthquake casualties based on the correction of anti-lethal level[J].Natural Hazards,110(1):1199-1226.
Marhain S,Ahmed A N,Murti M A.et al.2021.Investigating the application of artificial intelligence for earthquake prediction in Terengganu[J].Natural Hazards,108(1):977-999.
So E,Spence R.2013.Estimating shaking-induced casualties and building damage for global earthquake events:a proposed modelling approach[J].Bull Earthquake Eng,11(1):47-363.
Xing H,Jin H.2018.An earthquake casualty prediction model based on modified partial Gaussian curve[J].Natural Hazards,94(3):999-1021.
Xing H,Junyi S,Jin H.2020.The casualty prediction of earthquake disaster based on Extreme Learning Machine method[J].Natural Hazards,102(3):873-886.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2022-08-05.
基金项目:2021年地震应急青年重点任务(CEAEDEM202118).
第一作者简介:许瑞杰(1992-),工程师,主要从事地震应急工作.E-mail:774143003@qq.com.
更新日期/Last Update: 2023-06-25