|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]刘 琦,李腊月,胡乐银.北京及周边地区跨断层形变站网评估[J].地震研究,2023,46(04):491-502.[doi:10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2023.0055 ]
　LIU Qi,LI Layue,HU Leyin.Evaluation of the Cross-fault Observation Network in Beijing and Its Adjacent Areas[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2023,46(04):491-502.[doi:10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2023.0055 ]
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北京及周边地区跨断层形变站网评估(PDF/HTML)

《地震研究》[ISSN:1000-0666/CN:53-1062/P]

卷:
46
期数:
2023年04期
页码:
491-502
栏目:
出版日期:
2023-07-15

文章信息/Info

Title:
Evaluation of the Cross-fault Observation Network in Beijing and Its Adjacent Areas
作者:
刘 琦1; 李腊月2; 胡乐银3
(1.中国地震局地震预测研究所,北京 100036; 2.中国地震局第一监测中心,天津 300180; 3.北京市地震局,北京 100080)
Author(s):
LIU Qi1; LI Layue2; HU Leyin3
(1.Institute of Earthquake Forecasting,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100036,China)(2.The First Monitoring and Application Center,China Earthquake Administration,Tianjin 300180,China)(3.Beijing Earthquake Agency,Beijing 100080,China)
关键词:
跨断层观测;  地震预测效能;  监测条件;  地下水位;  构造环境;  北京
Keywords:
cross-fault observation;  earthquake forecasting effectiveness;  monitoring conditions;  groundwater;  tectonic conditions;  Beijing
分类号:
P315.727
DOI:
10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2023.0055
摘要:
为掌握北京及周边地区跨断层形变观测场地目前的效能情况,从而实现准确研判该区域地震危险性,降低未来地震可能造成的灾害风险,综合考虑跨断层场地监测条件和地震预测效能两方面设计了观测站网评估方案,分别从场地监测环境、监测有效性、地下水位变化及地表沉降影响、场地预测配套性、最优预测指标效能和区域变形配套性等方面开展研究,给出了北京及周边地区跨断层形变站网的综合评估结果及后续站网优化建议。结果表明:①目前北京及周边地区的跨断层场地对区域内大多数主要断层具有较好的监测能力和地震预测效能,但八宝山—黄庄—高丽营断裂上多数观测场地监测条件相对较差,预测效能普遍偏低,建议选择该断裂的其它位置补充新建若干观测场地。②除了断裂构造,区域地质构造、水文地质条件等也对观测场地效能有重要影响,后续新场地选址时需要重点考虑这些因素。
Abstract:
Beijing and its adjacent areas are characterized by developed economy,dense population and frequent historical strong earthquakes.In order to accurately study and judge the seismic risk in Beijing and its adjacent areas and reduce the disaster risk that may be caused by earthquakes,it is necessary to first understand the effectiveness of the current observational sites in this region.For this reason,this paper comprehensively considers the monitoring conditions and the effectiveness of earthquake forecasting of the cross-fault sites to design the evaluation scheme of the observational network.This paper studies the monitoring environment,the monitoring effectiveness,the effect of the groundwater level change and the surface subsidence,the matching of forecasting,the effectiveness of the optimal forecasting index and the matching of regional deformation.This paper proposes the comprehensive evaluation results and suggestions for the optimization of the observational network.The distribution of the current cross-fault sites in Beijing and its adjacent areas have good monitoring capacity for most of the major faults in the region and have good earthquake forecasting efficiency.However,the monitoring conditions of most observational sites on the Babaoshan-Huangzhuang-Gaoliying fault are relatively poor,and their forecasting efficiency is generally low.It is advisable to select other locations on the fault to supplement the observational sites.In addition to the fault structure,regional geological settings and hydrogeological conditions have an important impact on the effectiveness of the observational site,and need to be taken into account when selecting new sites.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2022-11-02.
基金项目:国家重点研发计划课题(2017YFC1500502); 中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(2021IEF1206).
第一作者简介:刘 琦(1985-),副研究员,主要从事地壳形变与地球动力学等方面研究.E-mail:liuqi@ief.ac.cn.
① 华北强震跟踪工作组,形变分析预报技术管理组.2015.首都圈跨断层流动基线、水准场地野外调研与优化改造建议报告.
更新日期/Last Update: 2023-10-01