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[1]陈 伟,汤一鸣,赵 军,等.基于手机信令数据的城市尺度地震避难疏散模拟[J].地震研究,2023,46(04):611-621.[doi:10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2023.0053 ]
　CHEN Wei,TANG Yiming,ZHAO Jun,et al.Urban-scale Earthquake Evacuation Simulation Based on Mobile Phone Signaling Data[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2023,46(04):611-621.[doi:10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2023.0053 ]
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基于手机信令数据的城市尺度地震避难疏散模拟(PDF/HTML)

《地震研究》[ISSN:1000-0666/CN:53-1062/P]

卷:
46
期数:
2023年04期
页码:
611-621
栏目:
出版日期:
2023-07-15

文章信息/Info

Title:
Urban-scale Earthquake Evacuation Simulation Based on Mobile Phone Signaling Data
作者:
陈 伟1; 汤一鸣2; 赵 军3; 高婧怡4; 翟国方5
(1.南京邮电大学 管理学院,江苏 南京 210023; 2.南京邮电大学 地理与生物信息学院,江苏 南京 210023; 3.江苏省建筑设计研究院股份有限公司,江苏 南京 210023; 4.日本东北大学 大学院工学研究科,日本 仙台 9808579; 5.南京大学 建筑与城市规划学院,江苏 南京 210023)
Author(s):
CHEN Wei1; TANG Yiming2; ZHAO Jun3; GAO Jingyi4; ZHAI Guofang5
(1.School of Management,Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications,Nanjing 210023,Jiangsu,China)(2.School of Geographic and Biologic Information,Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications,Nanjing 210023,Jiangsu,China)(3.Jiangsu Provincial Architectural Design and Research Institute,Nanjing 210023,Jiangsu,China)(4.Department of Architecture and Building Science,Graduate School of Engineering,Tohoku University,Sendai 980-8579,Japan)(5.School of Architecture and Urban Planning,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093,Jiangsu,China)
关键词:
应急避难场所;  手机信令数据;  地震避难;  疏散模拟;  天津
Keywords:
emergency shelter;  mobile phone signaling data;  earthquake disaster;  evacuation simulation;  Tanjin
分类号:
P315.94
DOI:
10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2023.0053
摘要:
城市尺度避难疏散模拟可发现应急避难服务缺口,为避难场所建设提供量化基础。基于手机信令数据,构建疏散模拟模型,以天津市小白楼CBD地区为例,进行地震应急避难疏散模拟,研究发现:区域内总避难需求人数约79.3万,在全部298个地块中,紧急避难需求人员分布于白天的地块有199个; 全部疏散路径的平均疏散时间约为10.8 min,小于10 min的路径占比约80.3%。116个紧急避难场所平均接收人数为6 396,其中25处接收人数超过10 000,6处接收人数超过20 000。超容规模较大的避难场所主要分布于天津站周边地区、海河东岸沿线区域、南京路沿线地区、津湾广场、锦州道及山西路等,其中64个已超出其最大容量,共计超出容量人数为42.68万,场均超容6 668人; 52个未超容避难场所,总计最大能容纳38.08万人,但实际接收13.73万人,尚能容纳共计24.35万人。
Abstract:
The simulation of urban-scale evacuation can help to find the gap between the actually-required number of the emergency shelters and the number of the existing emergency shelters,and to provide a quantitative basis for the construction of emergency shelters.Based on the mobile phone signaling data,an evacuation model is built to simulate the earthquake evacuation in Xiaobailou area,the CBD of Tianjin.It is found that the total number of people in need of refuge in the area was about 793000,and among the 298 plots,199 plots are required for evacuation during the daytime.The average evacuation time for the people on all routes is about 10.8 minutes,and the routes for people costing less than 10 minutes account for about 80.3%.The average number of refugees accommodated by 116 emergency shelters in evacuation simulation is 6396.There are 25 shelters whose maximum capacity is more than 10000 people and 6 shelters whose maximum capacity is more than 20000 people.Shelters with large excess capacity are mainly distributed around Tianjin railway station,along the East Bank of Haihe River,along Nanjing Road,in Jinwan Square,along Jinzhou Road and Shanxi Road,among which 64 have exceeded their maximum capacity,with 426800 people exceeding the total capacity and 6 668 people exceeding the average capacity.There are 52 shelters which refugees do not exceed their capacity,altogether they can accommodate 380800 people,but the actual refugees are 137300; there is a gap of 243500 people.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2022-09-09.
基金项目:国家自然科学基金(52108053); 江苏省社会科学基金(20ZZC001); 江苏省自然科学基金(BK20200762).
第一作者简介:陈 伟(1986-),副教授,主要从事大数据与城市公共安全、防灾减灾研究.E-mail:chen_wei@njupt.edu.cn.
通讯作者简介:翟国方(1964-),教授,博士生导师,主要从事城市与区域规划、空间规划与城市安全研究.E-mail:guofang_zhai@nju.edu.cn.
更新日期/Last Update: 2023-10-01