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Title:: Risk Assessment and Survey of the Public Opinion on Three Earthquakes in Sichuan in 2022

作者:: 袁庆禄¹; 方婉琳^1; 孙瑞婷¹; 胡军²; (1.防灾科技学院经济管理学院,河北三河 065201; 2.中国人民财产保险股份有限公司四川省分公司,四川成都 610016)

Author(s):: YUAN Qinglu¹; FANG Wanlin¹; SUN Ruiting¹; HU Jun²; (1.School of Economics and Management,Institute of Disaster Prevention,Sanhe 065201,Hebei,China; 2.Sichuan Branch,PICC Property and Casualty Co.,Ltd.,Chengdu 610016,Sichuan,China)

Keywords:: stone masonry wall; joint; retrofitting; seismic behaviour; ultra-high performance concrete

摘要:: 为准确评估与监测地震舆情风险,正确引导社会舆论方向,基于供需偏离理论,采用层次分析法和熵值法相结合的组合赋权法,构建地震舆情风险评估指标体系,以2022年四川芦山6.1级、马尔康5.8级和泸定6.8级3次地震后7 d内发布的相关微博及其评论为数据样本,衡量和评价其舆情风险。结果表明:震后24 h是地震舆情的风险监测关键时段,需要高度关注和密切观察。地震的震级较高或余震较多时,舆情风险指数波动性就会变大。构建的地震舆情风险评估指标体系,适用于对多个地震舆情风险的指标度量、动态监测及规律演变,可为震后政府与媒体的应急救援和舆论引导提供参考。

Abstract:: In order to accurately monitor and assess the risk of earthquake-related public opinion and to correctly guide the social opinion,based on the theory of supply-and-demand deviation,this paper constructs a risk assessment index system of the earthquake-related public opinion using a combination weighting method which consists of the analytic hierarchy process and the entropy method.The study utilizes data samples from the posts and comments on Sina Weibo,the largest social software platform in China within 7 days after the Lushan M_S6.1 earthquake,the Maerkang M_S5.8 earthquake,and the Luding M_S6.8 earthquake which occurred in Sichuan province in 2022,to evaluate the risk of public opinion on these three earthquakes.The results show that the post-earthquake 24 hours is a critical period for the earthquake-related public opinion.The higher magnitude or the more aftershocks of an earthquake,the larger the fluctuation of the public opinion risk index.The constructed risk assessment index system is suitable for the index measurement,dynamic observation,and evolution-law analysis of multiple risks of the earthquake-related public opinion.The risk assessment index system can provide a reference for government's emergency response and for the mainstream social media's public opinion guidance after destructive earthquakes.