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《地震研究》[ISSN:1000-0666/CN:53-1062/P]

卷:

47

期数:

2024年03期

页码:

405-418

栏目:

综述

出版日期:

2024-05-01

文章信息/Info

Title:

Analysis of Future Strong Earthquake Activity at the Boundary Faults of the Bayan Har Block Based on GPS Data

作者:

李 宁¹; 2; 季灵运¹; 2; 3; 蒋锋云¹; 2; 朱良玉¹; 2; 刘传金¹; 2

(1.中国地震局第二监测中心,陕西 西安 710054; 2.国家遥感中心地质灾害研究部,北京 100036; 3.防灾科技学院 地球科学学院,河北 三河 065201)

Author(s):

LI Ning¹; 2; JI Lingyun¹; 2; 3; JIANG Fengyun¹; 2; ZHU Liangyu¹; 2; LIU Chuanjin¹; 2

(1.The Second Monitoring and Application Center,China Earthquake Administration,Xi'an 710054,Shaanxi,China;2.Department of Geological Hazards,National Remote Sensing Center of China,Beijing 100036,China;3.School of Earth Sciences,Institute of Disaster Pre

关键词:

巴颜喀拉块体;  大地震序列;  块体运动;  均匀弹性模型;  强震活动

Keywords:

the Bayan Har block;  strong-earthquake sequence;  block activity;  homogeneous elastic model;  strong-earthquake activity

分类号:

P315.727

DOI:

10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2024.0041

摘要:

基于巴颜喀拉块体边界大地震序列,运用多弹簧滑块系统理论分析未来各边界断裂发生强震的可能时间; 基于1991—2016年中国大陆GPS水平速度场数据,采用均匀弹性块体模型计算了巴颜喀拉块体各边界断裂带的长期活动特征,并以此作为参考背景,计算了1999—2007、2009—2013、2013—2015、2015—2017、2017—2020年各边界断裂带的活动性质及时空演化特征,同时结合1995年以来发生在各边界断裂带上的M≥7.0地震震源机制解综合分析强震活动与块体运动的关系。结果表明:1995年以来发生在块体各边界断裂带上的M≥7.0地震震源机制与块体边界的运动特征一致,这一系列地震可能是由巴颜喀拉块体向E—SE向运动增强所致。综合块体边界大震序列与块体相对运动结果认为,未来十年,甘孜—玉树断裂、龙门山断裂南段、东昆仑断裂带东段存在发生M≥7.0地震的可能。

Abstract:

Nearly ten strong earthquakes(M≥7.0)have occurred on the boundary faults of the Bayan Har block since 1995,providing an opportunity and showing the necessity for the researchers to study the strong earthquake activities along these boundary faults in future.Which boundary fault will be potential place for the next strong earthquake(M≥7.0),and when the earthquake will happen are questions to be addressed.In this article,based on the historical earthquake events(M≥7.0)on the boundary faults of the Bayan Har block since 1900,we use the model of the multi-spring slider system to calculate the possible time of the potential earthquake and judge the possible boundary fault on which the earthquake may occur.Then we use the GPS data of the horizontal velocity field in the region of the Bayan Har block from 1991 to 2016 and the homogeneous elastic block model to calculate the long-term seismic characteristics of the boundary faults of the Bayan Har block.We further calculate the seismic properties of the boundary faults in 5 periods(1999-2007,2009-2013,2013-2015,2015-2017,and 2017-2020),and obtain the temporal-spatial evolution characteristics of these faults.On this basis,we analyze the seismic trend of the faults with the help of the focal mechanisms of the strong earthquakes(M≥7.0)on the faults since 1995.We find that the seismic characteristics of the boundary faults are consistent with the focal mechanisms,and strong earthquakes(M≥7.0)on the faults since 1995 are caused by the enhancement of the eastward-southeast movement of the Bayan Har block.Strong earthquakes(M≥7.0)are more likely to occur on the Ganzi-Yushu fault and the South Longmenshan fault in ten years.In addition,the east segment of the East Kunlun fault should be paid more attention to.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:

收稿日期:2023-03-01.
基金项目:国家自然科学基金(42104061,41904007).
第一作者简介:李 宁(1985-),副研究员,主要从事地震断层形变机理研究工作.E-mail:lee_eq@163.com.

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更新日期/Last Update: 2024-05-01