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[1]赵小艳,苏有锦,孟令媛,等.2024年新疆乌什7.1级地震和中国台湾花莲7.3级地震前的大震长期平静及中国大陆强震危险性研究[J].地震研究,2025,(01):32-40.[doi:10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2025.0004 ]
　ZHAO Xiaoyan,SU Youjin,MENG Lingyuan,et al.Research on the Long-term Quiescence of Large Earthquakes before the Wushi,Xinjiang MS7.1 Earthquake and the Hualian,Taiwan MS7.3 Earthquake in 2024 and the Strong-earthquake Risk in Chinese Mainland[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2025,(01):32-40.[doi:10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2025.0004 ]
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2024年新疆乌什7.1级地震和中国台湾花莲7.3级地震前的大震长期平静及中国大陆强震危险性研究(PDF)

《地震研究》[ISSN:1000-0666/CN:53-1062/P]

卷:
期数:
2025年01期
页码:
32-40
栏目:
出版日期:
2024-12-20

文章信息/Info

Title:
Research on the Long-term Quiescence of Large Earthquakes before the Wushi,Xinjiang MS7.1 Earthquake and the Hualian,Taiwan MS7.3 Earthquake in 2024 and the Strong-earthquake Risk in Chinese Mainland
作者:
赵小艳1; 苏有锦1; 孟令媛2; 臧 阳2
(1.云南省地震局,云南 昆明 650224; 2.中国地震台网中心,北京 100045)
Author(s):
ZHAO Xiaoyan1; SU Youjin1; MENG Lingyuan2; ZANG Yang2
(1.Yunnan Earthquake Agency,Kunming 650224,Yunnan,China；2.China Earthquake Networks Conter, Beijing 100045, China)
关键词:
乌什7.1级地震;  花莲7.3级地震;  地震长期平静;  南北地震带
Keywords:
the Wushi MS7.1 earthquake;  the Hualian MS7.3 earthquake;  long-term quiescence of the earthquakes;  the North-South Seismic Belt
分类号:
P315.72
DOI:
10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2025.0004
摘要:
对2024年新疆乌什7.1级地震和中国台湾花莲7.3级地震前出现的长期地震平静现象及其平静结束后的地震趋势进行了分析,进而对中国大陆当前仍存在的2个大震长期地震平静区域及其危险性进行了分析和讨论。结果表明:①乌什7.1级地震结束了天山地震带长达31年的7级以上地震长期平静状态,可能预示着天山地震带将进入一个新的7级以上地震活跃时段; 花莲7.3级地震结束了中国台湾地区长达17年的7级以上地震长期平静状态,可能预示着中国台湾地区将进入一个新的7级以上地震活跃时段。②南北地震带南段的云南地区自1996年丽江7.0级地震以来地震平静时间超过28年,南北地震带北段的甘肃—宁夏地区自1954年内蒙古阿拉善盟阿拉善左旗7.0级地震以来地震平静时间已超过70年,这2个区域当前或未来一个时期发生7级以上地震的风险较高,尤其是云南地震地区,应引起特别的关注和研究。
Abstract:
We analyzed the long-term quiescence before the 2024 Wushi MS7.1 earthquake in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and the Hualian MS7.3 earthquake in Taiwan Province of China,and discussed the earthquake tendency in Chinese Mainland after the quiescence.Then we further analyzed the long-term,quiescent of large earthquakes that still exist in 2 regions in Chinese Mainland and the earthquake risk which the 2 regions are facing.The Wushi MS7.1 earthquake marked the end of the 31-year-long quiescent state of MS≥7.0 earthquakes in the Tianshan Earthquake Zone,which may indicate that strong earthquakes will enter a new active-period in the Tianshan Earthquake Zone.The Hualian MS7.3 earthquake marked the end of the 17-year-long quiescent state of MS≥7.0 earthquakes in Taiwan,which may indicate that strong earthquakes will enter a new active-period of in Taiwan region.Strong-earthquake activity has been quiescent for over 28 years in Yunnan region in the southern section of the North-South Seismic Belt since the Lijiang MS7.0 earthquake in 1996,and strong-earthquake activity has been quiescent for over 70 years in Gansu-Ningxia region in the northern section of the North-South Seismic Belt since the MS7.0 earthquake in Alxa Left Banner,Alxa League,Inner Mongolia in 1954.So,the risk of strong earthquakes with MS≥7.0 in Yunnan region and Gansu-Ningxia region is relatively high,and Yunnan should be paid more attention to.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2024-08-13.
基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2021YFC3000705); 云南省科技创新团队(CXTD202412).
第一作者简介:赵小艳(1982-),高级工程师,主要从事地震预报研究.E-mail:47535120@qq.com.
通信作者简介:苏有锦(1965-),研究员,博士,主要从事地震学与地震预测研究.E-mail.suyoujin@seis.ac.cn.
更新日期/Last Update: 2025-01-01