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Title:: Study on the Early Warning Verification of Seismic Situation of the Minle-Shandan 6.1 Earthquake in 2003

Author(s):: LIU Xiao-feng; ZHANG Hui; (Earthquake Administration of GanSu Province,LanZhou 730000 GanSu,China)

Keywords:: Minle-Shandan 6.1 earthquake; early warning model; index; early warning verification

摘要:: 2003年民乐—山丹6.1级地震前,甘肃省地震局于9月20日提出了祁连山中东段地区6级左右地震短期预报意见,并采取了多种行之有效的短临跟踪措施,得到了中国地震局、甘肃省委、省政府的高度评价和表彰奖励。根据本次成功震例预报实践中积累的不同阶段预报指标体系,利用层次分析法,确定了祁连山地震带震情指标预警模型。依据预警模型及震情预警指标分层结果,将各类定量和定性指标转化为无量纲的以1～4表示的指标值,按成对比较法比较下层各指标两两之间对上层某指标的重要程度,计算权重向量,并对模型的整体层次进行一致性检验。研究结果表明,该地震前祁连山地震带震情预警值为3.138 9,依据预警等级判定标准,震情预警级别为红色。

Abstract:: Before Minle-Shandan M6.1 earthquake in 2003,short term earthquake prediction was put forward by Earthquake Administration of GanSu province on Sept.20 that about M6.1 earthquake would be occurred in middle-eastern segment of Qilian Shan Mountain,then some effective short-impending tracked measures were adopted,which gained highly appraised and commended encouragement by China Earthquake Administration,GanSu Provincial Party Committee and GanSu Provincial Government.Based on successful case predicted practice,we get various phases of prediction index system,use hierarchy analysis,ascertain early warning index system model of seismic situation in Qilian Mountain Fault.By the results of delamination of early warning model and seismic situation early warning index,we translate qualitative and quantitative objects into non-dimensional parameters of 1-4,get importance of comparing substrate two adjacent targets to a upper layer target using paired comparison,calculate cell weight vector,and check up the coherence of model's whole hierarchy.Results of this research show that the early warning value of Qilian Shan Mountain Fault before this earthquake is 3.1389; by classification standards of early warning scale,early warning lever of seismic situation is red.