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《地震研究》[ISSN:1000-0666/CN:53-1062/P]

卷:

39

期数:

2016年04

页码:

545-552

栏目:

出版日期:

2016-10-30

文章信息/Info

Title:

Research on Group Anomalies of Groundwater Level in Yunnan Region Based on Eliminating Precipitation Interference

作者:

胡小静¹; 付 虹¹; 毕 青²

(1.云南省地震局,云南 昆明 650224; 2.玉溪市防震减灾局,云南 玉溪 653199)

Author(s):

HU Xiaojing¹; FU Hong¹; BI Qing²

(1.Earthquake Administration of Yunnan Province,Kunming 650024,Yunnan,China)(2.Yuxi Earthquake Prevention and Disaster Mitigation Bureau,Yuxi 653199,Yunnan,China)

关键词:

地下水位;  降水影响;  群体异常;  区域构造活动

Keywords:

groundwater level;  precipitation influence;  group anomalies;  regional tectonic activity

分类号:

P315.723

DOI:

-

摘要:

利用云南地区10年以上的20口地下水位观测井孔资料,选出其中受降水影响较大的18口井,分别采用峰—谷幅值法和谷—谷幅值法对其观测资料进行年降水干扰排除后,基于这20口井的资料,提取全省和红河断裂东、西部地区的地下水位群体异常。结果表明:云南水位观测井的群体异常与云南地区6级以上地震有较好的相关性,其中谷—谷幅值方法提取的异常、预测效果较峰—谷幅值方法好,可能表明降水影响的延迟过程对这些井更为重要。分区预测的预报效能不如全省,可能说明井水位异常增多是区域构造活动和应力水平增加的结果,因此将用较小区域的异常对应较小区域的地震,虚报、漏报就会增多,从而降低预报效能。在异常增多区域构造活动增强的背景下,有利于6级以上地震发生,因此将群体异常指标用于云南的年度地震活动水平预测,具有一定的效能。

Abstract:

Selecting 20 groundwater level observation wells which had been observed more than 10 years in the Yunnan region as research object,we eliminated the precipitation interference for 18 groundwater wells greatly influenced by precipitation by use of the peak-valley value and valley-valley amplitude value of groundwater level methods.Then we extracted the group anomalies of ground water level of 20 wells in accordance with 3 different regions(including Yunnan Province,eastern and western of Honghe Fault).The results showed that the group anomalies recorded by ground water level observation well have good correlation with M≥6 earthquakes.And the predicted effect of valley-valley amplitude value method is better than that of peak-valley amplitude method,which may indicate that the delayed impact process of precipitation is more important for these wells.The predicted effect of particular region was worse than that of the whole province,which may indicate that the increase of the group anomalies of water level may caused by the increasing of regional tectonic activity and stress level.If we use the anomalies of water level in the smaller area to predict the earthquakes,the probability of false and missing prediction will increase obviously,and the effectiveness of forecasting is reduced.The area under the background of tectonic activity increasing in abnormal increase region is easily to occur M≥6 earthquakes,so the group anomaly index for forecasting annual the occurrence of seismic activity in Yunnan has some effectiveness.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:

收稿日期:2016-03-25
基金项目:云南省人民政府十项措施监测预报项目(JCYB-20080601-05)和中国地震局监测预报司2015年地下流体指标建设项目联合资助.

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更新日期/Last Update: 2016-10-30