|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]蒋礼果,黄淑萍.区域公路网震后连通可靠性分析及系统功能恢复[J].地震研究,2022,45(03):370-378.[doi:10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2022.0036 ]
　JIANG Liguo,HUANG Shuping.Connectivity Reliability Analysis and System Function Recovery of Post-earthquake Regional Highway Network[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2022,45(03):370-378.[doi:10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2022.0036 ]
点击复制

区域公路网震后连通可靠性分析及系统功能恢复(PDF/HTML)

《地震研究》[ISSN:1000-0666/CN:53-1062/P]

卷:
45
期数:
2022年03期
页码:
370-378
栏目:
生命线工程系统抗震防灾专栏
出版日期:
2022-06-20

文章信息/Info

Title:
Connectivity Reliability Analysis and System Function Recovery of Post-earthquake Regional Highway Network
作者:
蒋礼果; 黄淑萍
(上海交通大学 船舶海洋与建筑工程学院,上海 200240)
Author(s):
JIANG Liguo; HUANG Shuping
(School of Naval Architecture,Ocean and Civil Engineering,Shanghai Jiaotong University,Shanghai 200240,China)
关键词:
区域公路网;  连通可靠性;  贝叶斯网络;  公路单元;  系统功能恢复;  汶川地震
Keywords:
regional highway network;  connectivity reliability;  Bayesian network;  highway units;  system function restore;  the Wenchuan earthquake
分类号:
P315.9
DOI:
10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2022.0036
摘要:
为了研究区域公路网震后的连通功能,将连通可靠性作为评价指标,采用经验预测方法计算得到公路单元的抗震可靠性,使用事件树和成功树确定贝叶斯网络结构和条件概率表,然后将公路单元的抗震可靠性作为贝叶斯网络的先验概率输入,构建区域公路网连通可靠性分析模型。结合贝叶斯网络的敏感度分析和更新能力,提出一种启发式方法以识别关键单元的修复优先级,为路网系统连通功能恢复提供依据。以2008年汶川MS8.0地震中G213和S9构成的区域公路网为研究对象,对该方法进行了实例应用,结果表明:提出的模型可建立起公路网结构破坏和系统连通功能之间的联系,启发式方法识别出的关键单元及其修复次序能够快速恢复区域公路网的连通可靠性。
Abstract:
To study the post-earthquake connectivity of the regional highway network,the connectivity reliability is used as an index to calculate the aseismic capability of highway units through the empirical prediction.The event tree and success tree are used to determine the Bayesian network structure and conditional probability tables.Then,an analytical mode of connectivity reliability of regional highway network is constructed with the aseismic capability of highway units as prior probability.Based on the sensitivity analysis and Bayesian updating,a heuristic method is proposed for identifying the rehabilitation priority of critical units,which will provide support for recovering the connectivity of highway network system.The proposed model and methodology are applied to a regional highway network consisting of G213 Highway and S9 Road in Wenchuan earthquake disaster area.Results show that the proposed model integrates structural damage to the highway network with the connectivity of the highway network,and the critical units and their repair priority identified by the heuristic can significantly improve the connectivity of the regional highway network.

参考文献/References:


陈乐生.2012.汶川地震公路震害调查[M].北京:人民交通出版社.
邓亚娟,马荣国,胡绍荣.2009.地震灾害下公路运输系统防救灾关键技术研究[J].公路,(7):231-237.
何祥,袁永博,张明媛.2016.城市交通系统地震级联失效研究[J].自然灾害学报,25(6):79-86.
李健,周漪,刘威.2017.上海市历史城区震后应急救援路网评价与优化[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,17(2):227-233.
李廷辉,林均岐,刘金龙.2021.汶川MS8.0地震公路易损性研究[J].地震研究,44(4):682-688.
李英民,王丽萍,刘立平.2009.山地城市交通系统震害预测模型及其应用[J].西南交通大学学报,44(2):171-176.
李永义.2014.交通系统地震应急决策模型与方法[D].哈尔滨:中国地震局工程力学研究所.
孙海,高惠瑛.2017.基于粒子群优化投影寻踪概率模型的桥梁地震震害预测方法研究[J].世界地震工程,33(3):152-159.
王明文,孙小年,王海燕.2012.高烈度地震区公路网抗灾能力评价方法研究[J].公路,(4):155-159.
王余庆,辛鸿博,高艳平,等.2001.预测岩土边坡地震崩滑的综合指标法研究[J].岩土工程学报,23(3):311-314.
杨翰雯,欧进萍.2019.公路干线多种类基础设施震害预测的实用方法[J].黑龙江交通科技,42(9):1-4.
杨静,李大鹏,翟长海,等.2019.城市抗震韧性的研究现状及关键科学问题[J].中国科学基金,33(5):525-532.
朱美珍.1994.公路桥梁震害预测的实用方法[J].同济大学学报(自然科学版),22(3):279-283.
Aydin N Y,Duzgun H S,Heinimann H R,et al.2018.Framework for improving the resilience and recovery of transportation networks under geohazard risks[J].International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,31:832-843.
Bensi M T.2010.A Bayesian network methodology for infrastructure seismic risk assessment and decision support[D].Berkeley:University of California,Berkeley.
Fang X Q,Lin J Q,Zhou X L,et al.2008.Damage evaluation of tunnels in earthquakes[C]//Proceedings 14th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering.Beijing:8-16.
Kabir S,Papadopoulos Y.2019.Applications of Bayesian networks and Petri nets in safety,reliability,and risk assessments:a review[J].Safety Science,115:154-175.
Kjærulff U,Gaag L C V D.2000.Making sensitivity analysis computationally efficient[C]//Proceedings of the Sixteenth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence Stanford,California:Morgan Kaufmann Publishers Inc,317-325.
Mine H,Kawai H.1982.Mathematics for reliability analysis[M].Tokyo:Asakura-shoten:12-14.
Tang Y,Huang S P.2019.Assessing seismic vulnerability of urban road networks by a Bayesian network approach[J].Transportation Research Part D:Transport and Environment,77:390-402.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2021-12-04
基金项目:国家自然科学基金(51978397)资助.

更新日期/Last Update: 2022-07-01