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Title:: Study of the Rapid Pre-assessment of Economic Losses Caused by Medium-strong Earthquakes in Yunnan Area

Author(s):: HE Shifang; ZHANG Fanghao; YU Qingkun; LYU Jiali; DENG Shurong; DU Haoguo; CAO Yanbo; (Yunnan Earthquake Agency,Kunming 650224,Yunnan,China)

Keywords:: seismic economic losses; medium-strong eqrthquake; rapid assessment; Yunnan Province

摘要:: 以1992—2016年云南地区破坏性地震经济损失为样本数据,分析云南地区中强地震人均经济损失特征,并对云南各州(市)进行分区,再通过多元线性回归分析,提出了一个以震级、极震区烈度、人均GDP、人均财政收入、农民人均纯收入为评估指标的地震人均经济损失快速预评估方法。最后使用评估模型对2010—2016年M≥5.0地震进行了验证分析,发现地震经济损失快速预评估值与实际值较为接近,其评估结果满足震后应急黑箱期的地震灾害损失快速评估需求。

Abstract:: In this paper,we choose the economic losses caused by medium-strong earthquakes in Yunnan from 1992 to 2016 as sample data to analyze the characteristics of the per capita economic losses. According to the population density,the GDP value,and the economic losses in each county and city in Yunnan province,we divide it into six sub-regions. Then,through multiple linear regression analysis,we propose a rapid pre-assessment model of per capita economic losses caused by earthquakes. The model includes parameters like magnitude,intensity of the mezoseismal area,per capita GDP,per capita revenue,and per capita net income of farmers. Finally,we compute economic losses of the M≥5.0 earthquakes since 2010 with our model,and compare the results with the corresponding actual ones. We find they are close to each other. This proves that our model is practical for a rapid pre-assessment of economic losses in the Black-box stage of post-earthquake emergency.