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Title:: Study of the Behavior of the Campus Crowd during Emergent Evacuation and Its Influential Factors

作者:: 钟光淳¹; 翟国方¹; 毕雪梅²; 葛懿夫¹; (1.南京大学建筑与城市规划学院,江苏南京 210093; 2.江苏省地震局,江苏南京 210014)

Author(s):: ZHONG Guangchun¹; ZHAI Guofang¹; BI Xuemei²; GE Yifu¹; (1.School of Architecture and Planning,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093,Jiangsu,China)(2.Jiangsu Eauthquake Agency,Nanjing 210014,Jiangsu,China)

Keywords:: safety awareness on campus; evacuation behavior; questionnaire; correlation analysis; logistic regression model

摘要:: 校园作为城市高密度地区的典型区域,建筑密度高、道路错综曲折、灾后疏散难度大。以南京中心城区某高校为实证研究案例,展开问卷调查; 采用皮尔逊卡方检验法,对校园人群安全意识及疏散行为和性别、年龄、受教育程度及参加疏散演练次数等人员特性信息进行交叉分析,得到存在相关性的变量组; 基于Logistic回归模型,建立了人群特征、安全意识评价指标对校园人群疏散行为及心理影响的评价模型,识别疏散行为影响因素,以及各因素的影响程度大小。结果表明:年龄、性别以及参加过疏散演练的次数是影响人群安全意识及疏散行为的显著相关因素,学历是相关因素; 地震灾害下受访人群对避难场所的选择偏好为:场地型避难场所>建筑型避难场所>地下空间; 参加疏散演练的次数,安全意识、风险认知对灾害发生时的人群疏散行为有显著影响。

Abstract:: As a typical district of high-density urban areas,the campus features high density of buildings,complex and tortuous roads and great difficulty in post-disaster evacuation. This study takes a university in the central area of Nanjing city as an empirical case and carries out a questionnaire survey. This study uses Pearson Chi-square test to complete cross-over analysis on the safety awareness and evacuation behavior of different people on campus,as well as the personnel information such as gender,age,education background and the number of evacuation drills,so as to obtain the relevant variable groups. Based on the Logistic Regression model,the evaluation model of the influence degree of the crowd characteristics and the safety awareness evaluation index on crowd evacuation behavior and psychology on campus is established. The influencing factors of evacuation behavior and the degree of influence of each factor are identified. The results illustrate that the age,gender and the number of evacuation drills are the significantly-related factors affecting safety awareness and evacuation behavior. And the educational background of the respondents is the secondarily-related factor. In case of earthquake disasters,the respondents' preference for the different types of shelters is:sites>buildings>underground space. The number of evacuation drills,safety awareness and risk perception have significant influence on crowds' behavior in disaster evacuation.