地震研究

云南降水与M≥6地震关系初步分析^*

林辉¹,顾宁杰²,林佳霓³

(1.云南省地震局,云南昆明 650224; 2.昆明市官渡区地震局,云南昆明 650200; 3.中山大学物理科学与工程技术学院,广东广州 510275)

Preliminary Analysis of Correlation between the Precipitation and the M≥6 Earthquake in Yunnan

LIN Hui¹,GU Ning-jie²,LIN Jia-ni³

(1. Earthquake Administration of Yunnan Province,Kunming 650224,Yunnan,China)(2. Earthquake Administration of Guandu District,Kunming 650200,Yunnan,China)(3. School of Physics and Engineering,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,Guangdong,China)

Keywords：annual precipitation; M≥6 earthquakes; correlation; Yunnan

备注

摘要

全文

图/表

参考文献

通过对1960年以来云南地区的年降水与M≥6地震的相关性进行分析,发现云南全省年降水平均值小于1 000 mm或年降水距平值低于多年平均降水量25%的台站数大于20,出现降水旱异常后,与次年云南地区发生7级地震的对应率分别为25%和33%,没有显著的相关性; 从降水的空间分布特征分析,云南除思茅、普洱地震区外,有80%的M≥6强震在震前1年,震中附近出现过降水大于多年均值20%的现象,云南降水涝异常与6级以上地震存在一定的相关性,但分析认为降水通过对地壳的加载可能对地震有一定的诱发作用,但最多只是外因,只起调制作用,地震的发生主要是内因起主导作用。

Analyzing correlation between annual precipitation and the M≥6 earthquakes in Yunnan since 1960,we find that when the mean annual precipitation in Yunnan is less than 1 000 mm,or the number of the stations whose annual precipitation anomaly is lower than 25% is larger than 20, the corresponding probabitity of M≥7 earthquake in Yunnan in the following year is only 25% and 33% respectively. The correlation between the drought anomaly and the M≥7 earthquake isn't significant. Analyzing the spatial distribution of precipitation in Yunnan,we find that one year before the M≥6 earthquakes more than 80% of the total,the annual precipitation near the epicenters of the earthquakes is 20% higher than the average. The correlation between the flood anomaly and the M≥6 earthquakes happened in Yunnan is significant. We think that the precipitation loaded on the crust may trigger the earthquake,but it is only a modulator. The intrinsic factor is decisive for the earthquake.

引言
1 资料选取
2 云南M≥6地震前的降水特征
3 结论与讨论

表1 1960年以来云南地区M≥6地震参数和地震分区表<br/>Tab.1 Parameters of the M≥6 earthquakes in Yunnan since 1960

表1 1960年以来云南地区M≥6地震参数和地震分区表
Tab.1 Parameters of the M≥6 earthquakes in Yunnan since 1960

图1 云南降水与M≥7地震时间进程图(a)云南年降水均值;(b)云南年降水均值差分; (c)云南年降水小于多年平均降水量25%的台站<br/>Fig.1 Precipitation and time process of M≥7 earthquakes in Yunnan(a)Mean annual precipitation in Yunnan;(b)Difference of mean annual precipitation in Yunnan;(c)Number of

图1 云南降水与M≥7地震时间进程图(a)云南年降水均值;(b)云南年降水均值差分; (c)云南年降水小于多年平均降水量25%的台站
Fig.1 Precipitation and time process of M≥7 earthquakes in Yunnan(a)Mean annual precipitation in Yunnan;(b)Difference of mean annual precipitation in Yunnan;(c)Number of

图2 1960年以来云南M≥6地震震中分布及分区示意图<br/>Fig.2 Epicenter distribution and zoning of M≥6 earthquakes in Yunnan since 1960

图2 1960年以来云南M≥6地震震中分布及分区示意图
Fig.2 Epicenter distribution and zoning of M≥6 earthquakes in Yunnan since 1960

图3 滇西北地区部分M≥6地震前云南降水空间分布示意图<br/>(a)1961年中甸6.0级地震前1年;(b)1962年南华6.2级地震前1年;(c)1963年永平地震6.3级地震前1年; <br/>(d)2000年姚安6.5级地震前1年;(e)2003年大姚6.2、6.1级地震前1年;(f)2009年姚安6.0级地震前1年<br/>Fig.3 Spatial distribution of precipitation in Yunnan before part of M≥6 earthquakes in northwest Yunnan(a)Zhongdian M6.0 earthquake in 1961;(b)Nanhua M6.2 earthquake in 1962;(c)Yongping M6.3 earthquake in 1963; (d)Yaoan M6.5 earthquake in 2000;(e)Dayao M6.2 and M6.1 earthquakes in 2003;(f)Yaoan M6.0 earthquake in 2009

图3 滇西北地区部分M≥6地震前云南降水空间分布示意图
(a)1961年中甸6.0级地震前1年;(b)1962年南华6.2级地震前1年;(c)1963年永平地震6.3级地震前1年;
(d)2000年姚安6.5级地震前1年;(e)2003年大姚6.2、6.1级地震前1年;(f)2009年姚安6.0级地震前1年
Fig.3 Spatial distribution of precipitation in Yunnan before part of M≥6 earthquakes in northwest Yunnan(a)Zhongdian M6.0 earthquake in 1961;(b)Nanhua M6.2 earthquake in 1962;(c)Yongping M6.3 earthquake in 1963; (d)Yaoan M6.5 earthquake in 2000;(e)Dayao M6.2 and M6.1 earthquakes in 2003;(f)Yaoan M6.0 earthquake in 2009

图4 云南东部地区部分M≥6地震前降水分布图<br/>(a)1970年通海地震前2年;(b)1970年通海地震前1年;(c)1966年东川<br/>6.6、6.2级地震前1年;(d)1973年大关7.1级地震前1年<br/>Fig.4 Distribution of precipitation before part of M≥6 earthquakes in east Yunnan(a)Precipitation in 1968;(b)Tonghai earthquake in 1970;(c)Dongchuan M6.6 and M6.2 earthquake in 1966;(d)Daguan M7.1 earthquake in 1974.

图4 云南东部地区部分M≥6地震前降水分布图
(a)1970年通海地震前2年;(b)1970年通海地震前1年;(c)1966年东川
6.6、6.2级地震前1年;(d)1973年大关7.1级地震前1年
Fig.4 Distribution of precipitation before part of M≥6 earthquakes in east Yunnan(a)Precipitation in 1968;(b)Tonghai earthquake in 1970;(c)Dongchuan M6.6 and M6.2 earthquake in 1966;(d)Daguan M7.1 earthquake in 1974.

图5 腾冲、澜沧地震带部分M≥6地震前降水距平空间分布<br/>(a)1976年龙陵7.3、7.4级地震前3年;(b)1976年龙陵7.3、7.4级地震前1年;(c)1988年澜沧7.6级地震前1年; <br/>(d)1995年孟连7.3级地震前1年;(e)1984年孟连6.3级地震前1年;(f)1992年中缅边境6.9、6.8级地震前1年<br/>Fig.5 Spatial distribution of precipitation departure before part of M≥6 earthquakes in Tengchong-Lancang seismic belt(a)Precipitation in 1974;(b)Longling M7.3 and M7.4 earthquake in 1976;(c)Lancang M7.6 earthquake in 1988; (d)Menglian M7.3 earthquake in 1995;(e)Menglian M6.3 earthquake in 1984; (f)Sino-Burmese border M6.9 and M6.8 earthquake in 1992

图5 腾冲、澜沧地震带部分M≥6地震前降水距平空间分布
(a)1976年龙陵7.3、7.4级地震前3年;(b)1976年龙陵7.3、7.4级地震前1年;(c)1988年澜沧7.6级地震前1年;
(d)1995年孟连7.3级地震前1年;(e)1984年孟连6.3级地震前1年;(f)1992年中缅边境6.9、6.8级地震前1年
Fig.5 Spatial distribution of precipitation departure before part of M≥6 earthquakes in Tengchong-Lancang seismic belt(a)Precipitation in 1974;(b)Longling M7.3 and M7.4 earthquake in 1976;(c)Lancang M7.6 earthquake in 1988; (d)Menglian M7.3 earthquake in 1995;(e)Menglian M6.3 earthquake in 1984; (f)Sino-Burmese border M6.9 and M6.8 earthquake in 1992

图6 思茅、普洱地震区部分M≥6地震前降水异常分布<br/>(a)1965年思茅6.1级地震前1年;(b)1971年思茅6.7、6.2级地震前1年; <br/>(c)1979年普洱6.8级地震前1年;(d)2007年宁洱6.4级级地震前1年<br/>Fig.6 Distribution of precipitation anomaly before part of M≥6 earthquakes in Simao-Puer seismic zone(a)M6.1 Simao earthquake in 1965;(b)M6.7 and M6.2 Simao earthquake in 1971;

图6 思茅、普洱地震区部分M≥6地震前降水异常分布
(a)1965年思茅6.1级地震前1年;(b)1971年思茅6.7、6.2级地震前1年;
(c)1979年普洱6.8级地震前1年;(d)2007年宁洱6.4级级地震前1年
Fig.6 Distribution of precipitation anomaly before part of M≥6 earthquakes in Simao-Puer seismic zone(a)M6.1 Simao earthquake in 1965;(b)M6.7 and M6.2 Simao earthquake in 1971;