基金项目:“十二五”国家科技支撑计划课题《南北地震带强震综合预测与跟踪方法研究》(编号2012BAK19B01-07)资助.
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利用跨断层流动形变资料,基于灰色关联度分析方法,提炼反映鲜水河断裂构造变形特征方式、量值水平及其动态演化过程、分段差异性的走滑、张压、垂向活动参量新综合指标,研究其与断裂附近强震孕育—发生、与周围大尺度区域大震孕育或同震、调整影响的可能关系。结果 表明:(1)鲜水河断裂左旋走滑占主要优势;(2)小金6.3级、雅江6级地震前活动参量累积变化曲线出现过加速或转折等异常变化;(3)可能观测到昆仑山口西8.1级震后调整影响、汶川8.0级震前应力场强化或扰动影响、玉树7.1级震后短期内左旋加速影响。
Basing on mobile deformation data cross the fault and using grey relation degree analyze method,we got the new synthetic index for strike-tensile-vertical activity parameters of Xianshuihe Fault,which could reflect features,value,dynamic evolution process and tectonic deformation difference in different segment of Xianshuihe Fault. We studied the relationship of the new synthetic index with preparation-occurrence of strong earthquakes around the Xianshuihe Fault,and its relationship with preparation,co-seismic or adjustment influence of great earthquakes in large-scale area nearby. The results showed that:(1)Xianshuihe Fault mainly is left-lateral strike-slip fault.(2)The curve of activity parameters accumulation showed the anomaly variation of speeding up or turning before Xiaojin MS6.3 and Yajiang MS6.0 earthquakes.(3)We could observed the adjustment influence on the Xianshuihe Fault after the MS8.1 earthquake at the Western Pass of Kunlun Mountains,stress field intensifying or disturbing influence on Xianshuihe Fault before the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake,and left-lateral accelerating influence on Xianshuihe Fault after the Yushu MS7.1 earthquake in short-time.