地震研究

1998～2012年云南地区地震预测情况回顾与总结^*

刘丽芳,苏有锦,毛玉平,秦嘉政

(云南省地震局,云南昆明 650224)

关键词：地震活动强度; 年度地震趋势; 地震危险区判定; 云南地区

Review and Summary of Annual Earthquake Prediction in Yunnan from 1998 to 2012

LIU Li-fang,SU You-jin,MAO Yu-ping,QIN Jia-zheng

(Earthquake Administration of Yunnan Province,Kunming 650224,Yunnan,China)

Keywords：seismic activity strength; annual earthquake tendency; determination of earthquake risk region; Yunnan area

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摘要

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参考文献

通过总结云南省1998～2012年度地震趋势研究报告中云南地区地震趋势和地震重点危险区的判定情况,给出了年度最大地震活动强度、危险区地震对应情况和地震危险区预测面积的统计分析结果,以期得到云南地区年度地震预测情况的系统认识。

Through summarizing the prediction and judging situation of the earthquake tendency and earthquake key risk region,which were recorded in the research report of annual earthquake tendency consultation in Yunnan province from 1998 to 2012,we induced the statistical and analytical results of the annual largest seismic activity strength,the corresponding situation of actual earthquakes in risk region and statistic analyzing result of prediction area of risk region in order to obtain the systematic knowledge of annual earthquake prediction in Yunnan region.

引言
1 基本情况
2 统计分析
3 基本认识

表1 1998～2012年云南地区地震趋势判定意见统计表<br/>Tab.1 Statistic of determination suggestions of earthquake trend in Yunnan area from 1998 to 2012

表1 1998～2012年云南地区地震趋势判定意见统计表
Tab.1 Statistic of determination suggestions of earthquake trend in Yunnan area from 1998 to 2012

图1 云南省1998～2012年度地震危险区预测示意图<br/>(a)1998年度;(b)1999年度;(c)2000年度;(d)2001年度;(e)2002年度;(f)2003年度; <br/>(g)2004年度;(h)2005年度;(i)2006年度;(j)2007年度;(k)2008年度; <br/>(l)2009年度;(m)2010年度;(n)2011年度;(o)2012年度<br/>Fig.1 Sketch map of the prediction seismic risk region in Yunnan area from 1998 to 2012(a)Year 1998;(b)Year 1999;(c)Year 2000;(d)Year 2001;(e)Year 2002;(f)Year 2003; (g)Year 2004;(h)Year 2005;(i)Year 2006;(j)Year 2007;(k)Year 2008; (l)Year 2009;(m)Year 2010;(n)Year 2011;(o)Year 2012

图1 云南省1998～2012年度地震危险区预测示意图
(a)1998年度;(b)1999年度;(c)2000年度;(d)2001年度;(e)2002年度;(f)2003年度;
(g)2004年度;(h)2005年度;(i)2006年度;(j)2007年度;(k)2008年度;
(l)2009年度;(m)2010年度;(n)2011年度;(o)2012年度
Fig.1 Sketch map of the prediction seismic risk region in Yunnan area from 1998 to 2012(a)Year 1998;(b)Year 1999;(c)Year 2000;(d)Year 2001;(e)Year 2002;(f)Year 2003; (g)Year 2004;(h)Year 2005;(i)Year 2006;(j)Year 2007;(k)Year 2008; (l)Year 2009;(m)Year 2010;(n)Year 2011;(o)Year 2012

图2 云南地区年度预测最大地震强度<br/>和实际最大地震强度对比图<br/>Fig.2 The maximum magnitude comparison of the annual prediction and the actual earthquakes in Yunnan area

图2 云南地区年度预测最大地震强度
和实际最大地震强度对比图
Fig.2 The maximum magnitude comparison of the annual prediction and the actual earthquakes in Yunnan area

图3 滇东(a)、滇西(b)、滇西南(c)地震危险区年度预测最大地震强度和实际最大地震强度对比图<br/>Fig.3 The maximum magnitude comparison of the annual prediction and the real earthquakes in seismic risk region of Eastern(a),Western(b)and Southwest(c)Yunnan in one year

图3 滇东(a)、滇西(b)、滇西南(c)地震危险区年度预测最大地震强度和实际最大地震强度对比图
Fig.3 The maximum magnitude comparison of the annual prediction and the real earthquakes in seismic risk region of Eastern(a),Western(b)and Southwest(c)Yunnan in one year

表2 1998～2012年度地震危险区与地震实况统计表<br/>Tab.2 Statistic of the prediction seismic risk region and its corresponding actual earthquake from 1998 to 2012

表2 1998～2012年度地震危险区与地震实况统计表
Tab.2 Statistic of the prediction seismic risk region and its corresponding actual earthquake from 1998 to 2012

图4 1998～2012年度地震危险区实际预测能力的时间变化<br/>(a)年度危险区数目和报对的危险区数目;(b)年度M≥5.0地震数与报对地震数;(c)年度地震危险区<br/>预报准确率;(d)年度M≥5.0地震漏报率;(e)年度地震危险区虚报率<br/>Fig.4 Time variation of actual prediction ability of seismic risk region from 1998 to 2012(a)The number of the annual prediction seismic risk regions and the right number of the prediction seismic risk regions; (b)the number of the annual prediction M≥5 earthquakes and the right number of prediction earthquakes;(c)the accuracy rate of the annual prediction seismic risk region;(d)the missing rate of the annual prediction M≥5 earthquakes;(e)the false alert rate of the annual prediction earthquakes

图4 1998～2012年度地震危险区实际预测能力的时间变化
(a)年度危险区数目和报对的危险区数目;(b)年度M≥5.0地震数与报对地震数;(c)年度地震危险区
预报准确率;(d)年度M≥5.0地震漏报率;(e)年度地震危险区虚报率
Fig.4 Time variation of actual prediction ability of seismic risk region from 1998 to 2012(a)The number of the annual prediction seismic risk regions and the right number of the prediction seismic risk regions; (b)the number of the annual prediction M≥5 earthquakes and the right number of prediction earthquakes;(c)the accuracy rate of the annual prediction seismic risk region;(d)the missing rate of the annual prediction M≥5 earthquakes;(e)the false alert rate of the annual prediction earthquakes

表3 1998～2012年度地震危险区预测震级基本统计和预测能力<br/>Tab.3 Basic statistic of the prediction magnitude and the prediction ability in seismic risk region from 1998 to 2012

表3 1998～2012年度地震危险区预测震级基本统计和预测能力
Tab.3 Basic statistic of the prediction magnitude and the prediction ability in seismic risk region from 1998 to 2012

图5 “报对”危险区实际发生地震震级与预测震级中值的关系<br/>(a)“报对”危险区预测震级中值(空心框)与实际<br/>最大震级(实心圆);(b)“报对”危险区预测震级中值与实际最大震级之差<br/>Tab.5 The relation between the magnitude of the actual earthquakes in right prediction seismic risk area and the prediction magnitude median (a)the prediction magnitude(hollow frame)in seismic risk area and the actual maximum magnitude(solid circle); (b)the difference between the right predict magnitude in right prediction seismic risk area and the actual maximum magnitude

图5 “报对”危险区实际发生地震震级与预测震级中值的关系
(a)“报对”危险区预测震级中值(空心框)与实际
最大震级(实心圆);(b)“报对”危险区预测震级中值与实际最大震级之差
Tab.5 The relation between the magnitude of the actual earthquakes in right prediction seismic risk area and the prediction magnitude median (a)the prediction magnitude(hollow frame)in seismic risk area and the actual maximum magnitude(solid circle); (b)the difference between the right predict magnitude in right prediction seismic risk area and the actual maximum magnitude