2011年腾冲5.2级双震前中短临异常特征*
杨 芬

(中国地震局 滇西地震预报实验场,云南 大理 671000)

腾冲5.2级双震; 前兆异常; 短临预测

Medium-short-impending Term Anomaly Characteristic before Tengchong M5.2 Double Earthquakes in 2011
YANG Fen

(Western Yunnan Earthquake Prediction Study Area,CEA,Dali 671000,Yunnan,China)

Tengchong M5.2 double earthquakes; precursory anomalies; short-impending term prediction

备注

2011年6月20日和8月9日腾冲5.2级双震前,地震活动性、地下流体前兆和滇西实验场地震短临动态跟踪综合预测方案存在中短临异常现象。地震活动性存在云南M≥5地震低频活动、M≥3地震成条带活动和4级前兆震群活动的中短临异常,地下流体前兆水氡、水汞、固体二氧化碳和流量存在短临异常; 滇西实验场地震短临动态跟踪综合预测方案存在中短临异常。在长、中、短、临渐进式预报思路的指导下,综合分析各种中短临异常,在时间上进行逐步逼近,于2011年6月16日填写短临预测卡片,对2011年6月20日和8月9日腾冲5.2级双震作出了准确的地震三要素短临预测。

There exited medium,short,impending term anomaly in the seismic activity,underground fluid precursors and comprehensive prediction scheme for short-impending term earthquake dynamic tacking in the experimental site of the western Yunnan before Tengchong M5.2 double earthquakes on Jun.20 and Aug.9,2011. Seismic activities which included low frequency activity of M≥5.0 earthquakes,seismic belt activity of M≥3.0 earthquakes and precursory earthquake swarm activity of M≥4.0 earthquakes have the medium,short,impending term anomalies in west Yunnan. Underground fluid precursors such as water Rn,water Hg,CO2 and flow of water also appeared short-impending term anomaly,accordingly,there exited medium,short,impending term anomalies in the synthetic prediction scheme of short-impending dynamic tracking in the experimental site of the western Yunnan. Under the guidance of gradual prediction idea in long,medium,short,impending term,we comprehensively analyzed short-impending term anomaly approaching with time step by step,and filled in short-impending term prediction card on Jun.16,2011 to made an accurate short-term prediction(including three elements of earthquake)for Tengchong M5.2 double earthquakes on Jun.20 and Aug.9,2011.