地震研究

通过分析2014年云南鲁甸M_S6.5地震前震情跟踪过程中的显著异常,认为云南境内M≥6.5地震的长时间平静、M≥6地震的丛集活动以及M≥3地震月频次高值是震前云南地区地震活动异常的显著特征; 滇东北地区M≥5地震活动的韵律特征、2008年后3、4级地震活动显著增强以及2014年以来滇东北地区的高水位异常是判定滇东北地区存在M≥6地震的主要依据。在多个地震同时孕育的过程中,对判定哪个危险区先发震是困难的,但每次地震都有新的前兆异常出现,为成组地震连发过程中,新地震的识别提供了依据。云南地区3级地震月频次异常和前兆突变异常增多是鲁甸M_S6.5地震短期阶段最显著的异常特征。

Analyzing the remarkable precursory anomalies in the process of seismic tracking before Yunnan Ludian M_S6.5 earthquake in 2014,we considered that the main characteristic of earthquake activity anomaly before the earthquake was that the quiet of M≥6.5 earthquakes for a long time,the cluster activities of M≥6.0 earthquakes and the high value of monthly frequency of M≥3.0 earthquakes in Yunnan province. The main basis of making the judgment that there existed M≥6.0 earthquake in Northeastern Yunnan region are the prosodic features of M≥5.0 earthquakes in Northeastern Yunnan region,the earthquake activities of M3.0～4.0 earthquakes increased notably since 2008 and some high water level anomalies in Northeastern Yunnan region since 2014. In the process of the several earthquakes preparation at the same time,it is difficult to make the judgment whose risk region will be the first to occur the earthquake. However there appeared new precursory anomalies before each earthquake,which can help us to identify the new earthquake in the occurrence of grouped earthquakes in succession. The monthly frequency anomaly of M≥3.0 earthquakes and the increasing of sudden change of precursory abnormity items made good effort in the time prediction of Ludian M_S6.5 earthquake in the short-term period.

引言
1 地震学异常
2 前兆异常
3 鲁甸M_S6.5地震跟踪预测及其分析
4 结论和讨论

表1 云南M≥6 地震连发统计<br/>Tab.1 Statistic the cluster activities of M≥6.0 earthquakes in Yunnan

表1 云南M≥6 地震连发统计
Tab.1 Statistic the cluster activities of M≥6.0 earthquakes in Yunnan

图1 云南地区MS≥6.5地震M-t和时间间隔时间进程图<br/>Fig.1 M-t and time interval process diagrams of MS≥6.5 earthquakes in Yunnan region

图1 云南地区MS≥6.5地震M-t和时间间隔时间进程图
Fig.1 M-t and time interval process diagrams of MS≥6.5 earthquakes in Yunnan region

图2 云南地区M≥3地震月频次时间进程图<br/>Fig.2 Time process diagram of monthly frequency of M≥3.0 earthquakes in Yunnan region

图2 云南地区M≥3地震月频次时间进程图
Fig.2 Time process diagram of monthly frequency of M≥3.0 earthquakes in Yunnan region

图3 滇东北地区M≥5地震M-t图<br/>Fig.3 M-t diagram of M≥5.0 earthquakes in North-eastern Yunnan region

图3 滇东北地区M≥5地震M-t图
Fig.3 M-t diagram of M≥5.0 earthquakes in North-eastern Yunnan region

表2 永胜、宾川窗口4、5级地震与云南地区M≥5地震对应关系<br/>Tab.2 Relationship between M4、M5 earthquaks in Yongshan and Binchuan seismic window and M≥5 earthquakes in Yunnan region

表2 永胜、宾川窗口4、5级地震与云南地区M≥5地震对应关系
Tab.2 Relationship between M4、M5 earthquaks in Yongshan and Binchuan seismic window and M≥5 earthquakes in Yunnan region

图4 滇东北地区中小地震活跃示意图<br/>(a)2010～2015年M≥4震中分布;(b)M≥3地震半年累积1月滑动频度; <br/>(c)M≥4地震半年累积1月滑动频度<br/>Fig.4 Small-moderate earthquakes activity in North eastern Yunnan region (a)epicenters distribution of M≥4 earthquakes from 2010 to 2015;(b)monthly sliding frequency

图4 滇东北地区中小地震活跃示意图
(a)2010～2015年M≥4震中分布;(b)M≥3地震半年累积1月滑动频度;
(c)M≥4地震半年累积1月滑动频度
Fig.4 Small-moderate earthquakes activity in North eastern Yunnan region (a)epicenters distribution of M≥4 earthquakes from 2010 to 2015;(b)monthly sliding frequency

图5 典型前兆趋势异常示意图(a)下关水准3-2测边;(b)昭通渔洞倾斜;(c)云龙水管倾斜东西分量;(d)勐腊洞体应变北东向测值<br/>Fig.5 Sketch map of typical presursory tendency anomalies(a)short leveling of 3-2 measuring side at Xiaguan Station;(b)tilt at Yudong Station in Zhaotong; (c)pipe tilt in EW at Yunlong Station;(d)cavity strain in NE at Mengla Station

图5 典型前兆趋势异常示意图(a)下关水准3-2测边;(b)昭通渔洞倾斜;(c)云龙水管倾斜东西分量;(d)勐腊洞体应变北东向测值
Fig.5 Sketch map of typical presursory tendency anomalies(a)short leveling of 3-2 measuring side at Xiaguan Station;(b)tilt at Yudong Station in Zhaotong; (c)pipe tilt in EW at Yunlong Station;(d)cavity strain in NE at Mengla Station

图6 震前典型的前兆短临异常示意图<br/>(a)昭阳水位;(b)鲁甸氟离子;(c)丽江碳酸氢根;(d)丽江钙离子;(e)会泽静水位;(f)曲江水温<br/>Fig.6 Sketch map of typical short-imminent presursory anormalies before the earthquake(a)water level at Zhaoyang Station;(b)Fluorinion at Ludian Station;(c)Bicarbonate ion at Lijiang Station;(d)Calcium ion at Lijiang Station;(e)static groudwater level at Huize Station;(f)water tempreture at Qujiang Station

图6 震前典型的前兆短临异常示意图
(a)昭阳水位;(b)鲁甸氟离子;(c)丽江碳酸氢根;(d)丽江钙离子;(e)会泽静水位;(f)曲江水温
Fig.6 Sketch map of typical short-imminent presursory anormalies before the earthquake(a)water level at Zhaoyang Station;(b)Fluorinion at Ludian Station;(c)Bicarbonate ion at Lijiang Station;(d)Calcium ion at Lijiang Station;(e)static groudwater level at Huize Station;(f)water tempreture at Qujiang Station

图7 滇东北地区高水位井孔分布和异常曲线示意图(a)井孔分布示意图;(b)昭通水位;(c)宣威水位<br/>Fig.7 Distribution of high water level well holes and the sketch map of their anomaly curves in Northeastern Yunnan(a)distribution of high water level well holes;(b)water level at Zhaotong Station;(c)water level at Xuanwei Station

图7 滇东北地区高水位井孔分布和异常曲线示意图(a)井孔分布示意图;(b)昭通水位;(c)宣威水位
Fig.7 Distribution of high water level well holes and the sketch map of their anomaly curves in Northeastern Yunnan(a)distribution of high water level well holes;(b)water level at Zhaotong Station;(c)water level at Xuanwei Station

图8 显著前兆异常分布<br/>Fig.8 Distribution of remarkable precursory anormalies

图8 显著前兆异常分布
Fig.8 Distribution of remarkable precursory anormalies

陈立德,付虹.2003.地震预报基础与实践[M].北京:地震出版社,208-210,262.
陈立德,龙晓帆,张喜玲,等.1997.丽江7.0级地震预报判据及地震学主要异常[J].地震,(4):340-348.
陈立德,罗平.1992.澜沧7.6级地震前兆异常的综合特征(一)中期异常及其综合特征[J].地震,(4):18-27.
陈立德,罗平.1997.1995年7月12日孟连中缅边界7.3级地震短临预报及前兆异常特征(1)[J].地震研究,20(2):151-156.
付虹,陈立德,罗平,等.1997.1995年7月12日云南中缅边界孟连7.3级地震中短临预报及前兆特征(2)[J].地震研究,20(3):249-257.
付虹,王炜、王世芹,等.2002.地震活动因子A值在川滇地区MS≥6地震中的应用[J].内陆地震,16(3):205-211.
付虹,赵小艳.2013.汶川MS8.0地震前云南地区显著前兆观测异常分析[J].地震学报,35(4):477-484.
刘耀炜,陆明勇,付虹,等.2010.地下流体动态信息提取与强震预测技术研究[J].北京:地震出版社,39-40.
马瑾,郭彦双.2014.失稳前断层加速协同化的实验室证据和地震实例[J].地震地质,36(3):547-561.
石绍先,付虹,沈斌,等.1991.1988年澜沧耿马大震的预报和再认识[J].西北地震学报,13(1):35-40.
张国民,张晓东,吴荣辉,等.2005.地震预报回顾与展望[J].国际地震动态,(5):39-53.

备注

引言

1 地震学异常

2 前兆异常

3 鲁甸M_S6.5地震跟踪预测及其分析

4 结论和讨论

期刊信息

备注

引言

1 地震学异常

2 前兆异常

3 鲁甸MS6.5地震跟踪预测及其分析

4 结论和讨论

期刊信息

3 鲁甸M_S6.5地震跟踪预测及其分析