地震研究

对云南云县地震台洞体应变和水管倾斜观测值与降水量的对比分析,结果表明,云县年降水总量每增加200 mm,洞体应变和水管倾斜的增量分别约为4 000×10-8和90″; 月降水增加100 mm,云县洞体应变和水管倾斜月变幅的增量分别约为38×10-8和2.5″。构建月降水和月增量的线性方程,求取测值与理论值的残差,发现当残差量大于1倍均方差后,短期内台站周边500 km范围内均有5.5级以上地震发生。距离台站最近的昌宁5.1级地震前,异常幅度最大,表明排除降水干扰后的变形增大,多与构造活动有关。

In this article,through comparative analysis on the cavity strain and inclined pipe observation value and precipitation in Yunxian seismic station,we found that there have a certain correlation between each other.Quantitative analysis result shows,the total annual precipitation increased by 200 mm,the influence on the cavity strain is 4 000×10-8 and the influence on the inclined pipe observation value is 90″; The monthly precipitation increased 100 mm,the cavity strain and inclination observation value increase monthly in amplitude,are respectively 38×10-8 and 2.5″. After constructing the linear equation of monthly precipitation and monthly increment,the residual of measured value and theoretical value are obtained.When the residual quantity is 1 times more than the mean square deviation,there are M≥5.5 earthquakes occurred in the vicinity of 500 km from station in the short term.The nearest distance station from Changning MS5.1 earthquakes shows the maximum amplitude of anomaly,which shows that the deformation increases after the precipitation disturbance,and are related to the tectonic activity.

引言
1 资料选取和分析方法
2 降水量对形变测值的影响分析
3 结论与讨论

图1 云县地震台洞体应变(a)和水管倾斜(b)原始记录图<br/>Fig.1 The cavity volumetric-stain(a)and inclined pipe(b)original record image at Yunxian Station

图1 云县地震台洞体应变(a)和水管倾斜(b)原始记录图
Fig.1 The cavity volumetric-stain(a)and inclined pipe(b)original record image at Yunxian Station

图2 2014年云县地震台台水管倾斜东西分量原始记录曲线(a)与降水量(b)对比图<br/>Fig.2 Intuitive comparison of the original record curve of the east-west component of the inclined pipe at Yunxian Seismic Station(a)and precipitation(b)in 2014

图2 2014年云县地震台台水管倾斜东西分量原始记录曲线(a)与降水量(b)对比图
Fig.2 Intuitive comparison of the original record curve of the east-west component of the inclined pipe at Yunxian Seismic Station(a)and precipitation(b)in 2014

图3 年降水量与洞体应变(a)、水管倾斜(b)年变幅相关关系示意图<br/>Fig.3 The relationship between annual precipitation and annual variation of cavity volumetric-stain(a),inclined pipe(b)

图3 年降水量与洞体应变(a)、水管倾斜(b)年变幅相关关系示意图
Fig.3 The relationship between annual precipitation and annual variation of cavity volumetric-stain(a),inclined pipe(b)

表1 年降水量引起的形变量分析<br/>Tab.1 Analysis of deformation caused by annual precipitation

表1 年降水量引起的形变量分析
Tab.1 Analysis of deformation caused by annual precipitation

图4 洞体应变(a)、水管倾斜(b)形变月变幅与月降水量(c)关系示意图<br/>Fig.4 The relationship between monthly deformation variation of cavity volumetric-stain(a) and inclined pipe(b)and monthly precipitation(c)

图4 洞体应变(a)、水管倾斜(b)形变月变幅与月降水量(c)关系示意图
Fig.4 The relationship between monthly deformation variation of cavity volumetric-stain(a) and inclined pipe(b)and monthly precipitation(c)

图5 洞体应变(a)、水管倾斜(b)形变观测月幅差与月降水量相关关系示意图<br/>Fig.5 The relationship between monthly difference of cavity volumetric-stain(a) and inclined pipe(b)and monthly precipitation

图5 洞体应变(a)、水管倾斜(b)形变观测月幅差与月降水量相关关系示意图
Fig.5 The relationship between monthly difference of cavity volumetric-stain(a) and inclined pipe(b)and monthly precipitation

表2 月降水量与对应的形变量分析<br/>Tab.2 Monthly precipitation and the corresponding deformation analysis

表2 月降水量与对应的形变量分析
Tab.2 Monthly precipitation and the corresponding deformation analysis

表3 异常出现时间与中强地震的对应关系<br/>Tab.3 Correspondence between anomalies time and moderately strong earthquakes

表3 异常出现时间与中强地震的对应关系
Tab.3 Correspondence between anomalies time and moderately strong earthquakes

图6 洞体应变(a)、水管倾斜(b)观测值与拟合方程理论值残差时间进程曲线<br/>Fig.6 Residual time process curve between observed values of cavity volumetric-stain(a),inclined pipe(b)and fitting equation theoretical value

图6 洞体应变(a)、水管倾斜(b)观测值与拟合方程理论值残差时间进程曲线
Fig.6 Residual time process curve between observed values of cavity volumetric-stain(a),inclined pipe(b)and fitting equation theoretical value

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备注

引言

1 资料选取和分析方法

2 降水量对形变测值的影响分析

3 结论与讨论

期刊信息