基于耦合因子的广东地区地震灾害人员伤亡评估方法*
何 萍,俞 岗

(广东省地震局,广东 广州 510070)

地震灾害; 人员伤亡评估; 耦合因子; 广东地区

Evaluation Method of Injuries and Deaths of Earthquake Disasters in Guangdong Area Based on Coupling Factor
HE Ping,YU Gang

(Guangdong Earthquake Agency,Guangzhou 510070,Guangdong,China)

earthquake disaster; casualty assessment; coupling factor; Guangdong area

备注

从地震灾害人员伤亡影响因素的角度进行震害伤亡人数快速评估方法的研究,建立基于耦合因子的伤亡人数评估模型,并以广东地区为例,分析评估模型中地震灾害人员伤亡耦合因子的空间化及定量化过程。以ARC Engine 10.1为平台进行地震快速评估与动态出图系统的研发,并将其应用于广东地区历史强震的震害评估。结果 表明:该系统对同一震例可以用不同算法(基于耦合因子的算法模型及常规算法模型)进行伤亡人数评估计算,基于耦合因子的算法模型所计算出的人员伤亡数量具有明显的地区差异性,比较贴合实际情况。

From the point of view of influencing factors of casualties in earthquake disasters,we construct the rapid assessment method of casualties in earthquake disasters,and establish a more scientific and reasonable algorithm model for estimating casualties in earthquake disasters based on coupling factor. Then taking Guangdong area as an example,we analyz the spatialization and quantification of coupling factors of casualties in detail. Finnaly,we develop a rapid seismic assessment and dynamic mapping system based on the ARC Engine 10.1 platform,and applied it to the earthquake damage assessment of historical strong earthquakes in Guangdong area. The results indicate that the system can evaluate the casualties of the same earthquake case with different algorithms(the algorithm model based on coupling factor and the conventional algorithm model). The casualties calculated by the algorithm model based on coupling factor have obvious regional differences and are more suitable for the actual situation.