华南地区流体地震预测指标建立、应用和反思*

(福建省地震局,福建 福州 350003)

华南地区; 流体地震预测指标体系; 北流地震

Establishment,Application and Reflection of Fluid Earthquake Prediction Index in South China
LIAO Lixia,QIN Shuanglong,HONG Xuyu

(Earthquake Administration of Fujian Province,Fuzhou 350003,Fujian,China)

South China; index system of fluid seismic prediction; Beiliu earthquake

备注

为提高华南地区流体地震预测水平和实效,在中国震例及日常工作经验积累的基础上建立华南地区流体地震预测指标体系,并在日常震情跟踪工作中进行检验,以2019年广西北流5.2级地震为例,对该指标体系的异常与干扰及会商机制等进行反思。结果 表明:①指标体系中的空间指标、地球化学指标存在应用的局限性; 基于ML4.5震例基础上建立的震级强度指标在震级的判定上存在一定的偏差; ②任何单一的预测指标用于地震预测时,都应根据不同区域特点,并结合多测项及其它学科资料进行综合判定,才能得到更为准确的判定结果; ③空间分析不能只关注一条断裂带,应从更大的区域范围对成组断裂带进行分析; ④地震异常和干扰有时是共生或伴生关系,不能因周围有干扰就直接否定其构造成因; 异常分析不能仅局限在省域范围,应加强片区内各省学科间的交流协作,搭建一个可以充分勾通、交流的平台。

In order to improve the level and effectiveness of fluid earthquake prediction in South China,the index system of fluid earthquake prediction in South China is established on the basis of earthquake cases in China and daily work experience,and it is tested in daily earthquake tracking work in South China M5.2 Toking Guangxi Beiliu earthquake as an example,this paper makes a comparative analysis in temporal and spatial domains,and finds that there are limitations in the application of spatial and geochemical indexes in the index system.The magnitude strength index based on the earthquake case has some deviation in magnitude determination.we introspected the index system,anomaly,interference,and consultation mechanism,and the following conclusions are drawn:when a single prediction index is used for earthquake prediction,it should be comprehensively determined according to the characteristics of different regions,combined with multiple measurement items and other discipline data,so as to obtain more accurate judgment results.Spatial analysis can not only focus on one fault zone,but also analyze the group fault zone from a larger regional scope.Seismic anomalies and interferences are sometimes symbiotic or associated,and cannot be directly negated their structural causes because of the interference around them.Anomaly analysis should not be limited to a province,but should strengthen the communication and cooperation among the disciplines in a region,and build a platform for full communication.