基于b值分析宁夏吴忠—灵武地区强震危险性*

(宁夏回族自治区地震局,宁夏 银川 750001)

吴忠—灵武地区; b值; 极大似然法; 地震危险性; 小震稀疏段

Strong Earthquake Risk in Wuzhong-Lingwu Region of Ningxia Based on b-value
ZENG Xianwei,LI Wenjun,MA Chongzhi,CAI Xinhua

(Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region Earthquake Agency,Yinchuan 750001,Ningxia,China)

Wuzhong-Lingwu region; b-value; the maximum likelihood method; seismic risk; sparse segment of small earthquakes

备注

利用1970年1月至2018年10月吴忠—灵武地区的地震精定位目录,基于b值平面分布以及沿活动断裂的震源深度剖面和b值剖面图等,分析了研究区发生强震的潜在危险性。结果 表明:①新华桥附近存在发生地震的潜在危险性,强度为MS5.1~5.4,但b值时序曲线表明该区域短期内发生中强地震的紧迫性不强; ②吴忠/郭家桥—高闸地区很可能是1921年2月22日吴忠南MS6.0地震的发震位置,该地震震源深度应在15 km左右,上地壳浅部很可能未破裂; ③吴忠/郭家桥—高闸地区地壳浅部依旧存在发生强震的危险,孕震强度为MS6.2~6.3,孕震深度在10 km以内。

In the paper,we relocated the earthquakes in Wuzhong-Lingwu region from Jan.,1970 to Oct.,2018 based on Hypo2000 and HypoDD methods.Then,analyzing the horizontal distribution of b-value,focal depth profile and b-value profile along active fault,we studied the potential risk of strong earthquakes in the study region.The results show that:① There is a risk of MS5.1~5.4 earthquakes near Xinhuqiao area.However,the b-value time series curve does not support the occurrence of medium-strong earthquakes in the region in a short time.② The Wuzhong MS6.0 earthquake on Feb.22,1921 is likely to occur in Wuzhong-Gaozha region.The focal depth of the earthquake is about 15 km,and the shallow part of the upper crust is probably unbroken.③ There is still a risk of strong earthquakes with MS6.2~6.3 in the shallow crust of the Wuzhong-Gaozha region and the focal depth is within 10 km.