基于Newmark模型的地震滑坡承灾体风险评估——以2014年云南鲁甸6.5级地震为例
贾召亮1,郑 川1,吴艳梅1,张 鹏2,许瑞杰1,壮 延1,曹彦波1

(1.云南省地震局,云南 昆明 650224; 2.华能澜沧江水电股份有限公司,云南 昆明 650206)

Newmark模型; 地震滑坡; 承灾体; 风险评估; 鲁甸地震

Risk Assessment the Hazard-bearing Bodies by the Earthquake-induced Landslides Based on the Newmark Model:A Case Study of the 2014 Ludian,Yunnan MS6.5 Earthquake
JIA Zhaoliang1,ZHENG Chuan1,WU Yanmei1,ZHANG Peng2,XU Ruijie1,ZHUANG Yan1,CAO Yanbo1

(1.Yunnan Earthquake Agency,Kunming 650224,Yunnan,China)(2.Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower INC,Kunming 650206,Yunnan,China)

the Newmark model; earthquake-induced landslide; hazard-bearing body; risk assessment; the Ludian earthquake

DOI: 10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2023.0043

备注

以云南省昭通市为研究区,利用区域地质和地形数据,基于Newmark位移模型开展斜坡临界加速度计算与地震滑坡危险性分析; 基于滑坡滑动距离统计模型,建立简化的地震滑坡影响范围预测方法; 利用2014年鲁甸6.5级地震地震动峰值加速度模拟数据,引入建筑物、人口和道路数据,尝试开展地震滑坡承灾体风险评估。结果表明:昭通市地震滑坡高易发区主要分布在河流两岸陡坡地区和软弱岩层集中分布区域,受坡度和岩性因素控制明显; 鲁甸地震因地质灾害死亡人口均分布在地震滑坡威胁建筑物和人口较多的乡镇; 地震滑坡道路致灾高风险路段与实际受灾严重路段重合度较高; 评估结果能在区域尺度反映承灾体的风险分布情况。
Using geological and topographic data of Zhaotong city,the critical acceleration of the slope is calculated based on the Newmark model,and the risk of earthquake-induced landslides in this region is analyzed.Based on the statistical model of the sliding distance of the landslides,a simplified forecasting method for the area affected by the earthquake-induced landslides is established.Using the data of buildings,population,roads and simulated peak ground acceleration of the 2014 Ludian MS6.5 earthquake,the risk assessment of the hazard-bearing bodies induced by the earthquake landslides is carried out.The results show that the high-prone places of the earthquake-induced landslides in Zhaotong city are mainly distributed in the steep slope area on both sides of the river and the concentrated area of the soft strata of the rock.And the distribution of high-prone areas is mainly controlled by slope and lithology.Victims of geological disasters in the Ludian earthquake event were in towns and villages where lots of buildings and large population are threatened by earthquake landslides.The high-risk roads evaluated are consistent with the actual situation in Zhaotong city.The assessment results can display the risk distribution of the disaster-bearing body on the regional scale.