地震研究

在研究滇东北地震滑坡危险区滑坡致灾因子和孕灾环境的基础上,选取了地形、地质、其他共3大类12项评价因子,通过评价因子独立性检验,构建滑坡易发性评价指标体系。随机选取研究区70%的滑坡点作为滑坡易发性评价训练样本,运用GIS空间分析功能,分别采用确定性系数模型、二元逻辑回归模型以及二者组成的耦合模型进行滑坡易发性评价。选取未参与训练样本的30%滑坡点作为检验样本,使用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线对以上3种模型的评价结果和精度进行验证。结果显示:高程、坡度、距道路距离、地质岩性、NDVI、年平均降雨量对滑坡易发性影响相对较大。耦合模型的AUC值为0.781,高于确定性系数模型的AUC值0.754和二元逻辑回归模型的AUC值0.748。耦合模型合理性和评价精度高于单一模型,且均符合模型检验要求。耦合模型揭示了各评价因子对滑坡易发性影响的差异性,能够较好地反映滑坡易发性影响因子之间相互权重大小,预测的研究区滑坡的空间分布与野外实际调查结果高度吻合。

After studying the factors inducing landslides and the environment leading to landslides in the critical earthquake risk areas in northeast Yunnan Province,we selected 12 evaluation factors from 3 categories:“topography”,“geology”,and “others”.Then,through testing the independence of these factors,we constructed an evaluation index system of the landslide susceptibility.We randomly selected 70% of the landslide sites in the study area for the training samples of the landslide susceptibility evaluation.Using GIS spatial analysis function,we respectively used the Certainty Factor model,the Binary Logistic Regression model and the coupled model of these two models,to evaluate the landslide susceptibility in the study area.we used the rest 30% of the landslide sites for test samples,and adopted the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve to verify the accuracy of the evaluation results from the three models.We found that the evaluation factors like elevation,slope,distance from the road,geological lithology,NDVI,and average annual rainfall have relatively significant effects on the landslide susceptibility.AUC value of the coupled model is 0.781,higher than the one(0.754)of the Certainty Factor model and another one(0.748)of the Binary Logistic Regression model.The coupled model is more rational and accurate than the other two,and satisfies all the requirements of model test.The coupled model objectively revealed the difference of the influence of each evaluation factor,and well reflected the mutual weight of the influence factors of landslide susceptibility.In the study area,the predicted locations of the landslide by the coupled model is consistent with the locations determined through field survey.

引言
1 研究区概况
2 研究方法
3 滑坡易发性评价
4 评价结果与评价精度
5 模型评价结果验证与对比分析
6 讨论
7 结论

图1 研究区滑坡点分布<br/>Fig.1 Distribution of the landslides in the study area

图1 研究区滑坡点分布
Fig.1 Distribution of the landslides in the study area

表1 研究区滑坡易发性评价因子数据来源<br/>Tab.1 Source of the assessment factors for landslide susceptibility in the study area

表1 研究区滑坡易发性评价因子数据来源
Tab.1 Source of the assessment factors for landslide susceptibility in the study area

图2 研究区滑坡易发性技术路线流程图<br/>Fig.2 Assessment process of the landslide susceptibility in the study area

图2 研究区滑坡易发性技术路线流程图
Fig.2 Assessment process of the landslide susceptibility in the study area

表2 评价因子和分类级别确定系数CF、WCF<br/>Tab.2 Assessment factors and their gradings,areas,number of landslides,CF and WCF values in the study area

表2 评价因子和分类级别确定系数CF、WCF
Tab.2 Assessment factors and their gradings,areas,number of landslides,CF and WCF values in the study area

图3 研究区滑坡易发性评价因子分级图<br/>Fig.3 Classification of assessment factors for the landslide susceptibility in the study area

图3 研究区滑坡易发性评价因子分级图
Fig.3 Classification of assessment factors for the landslide susceptibility in the study area

表3 评价因子相关性系数矩阵<br/>Tab.3 Correlation matrix of assessment factors

表3 评价因子相关性系数矩阵
Tab.3 Correlation matrix of assessment factors

表4 二元逻辑回归分析结果<br/>Tab.4 Results from the logistic regression analysis

表4 二元逻辑回归分析结果
Tab.4 Results from the logistic regression analysis

图4 研究区滑坡易发性评价结果<br/>Fig.4 Evaluation of the landslide susceptibility in the study area[HT]

图4 研究区滑坡易发性评价结果
Fig.4 Evaluation of the landslide susceptibility in the study area[HT]

表5 不同模型下的易发性分区统计结果表<br/>Tab.5 Susceptibility zoning results from different assessment models

表5 不同模型下的易发性分区统计结果表
Tab.5 Susceptibility zoning results from different assessment models

图5 不同评价模型下的ROC曲线<br/>Fig.5 ROC curves according to different assessment models

图5 不同评价模型下的ROC曲线
Fig.5 ROC curves according to different assessment models

郭子正,殷坤龙,刘庆丽,等.2020.基于位移比模型的三峡库区云阳县域内蠕变型滑坡降雨预警[J].地球科学,45(2):672-684.
Guo Z Z.,Yin K,Liu Q L,et al.2020.Rainfall warning of creeping landslide in Yunyang county of Three Gorges reservoir region based on displacement ratio model[J].Earth Science,45(2):672-684.(in Chinese)
雷林洋.2017.基于GIS的云南省盐津县地震地质灾害危险性评价研究[D].北京:中国地质大学(北京).
Lei L Y.2017.Study on the assessment of earthquake geohazard probability of Yanjin in Yunnan Province based on GIS[D].Beijing:China University of Geosciences(Beijing).(in Chinese)
林高聪,潘书华,叶振南.2021.基于Newmark法的设定地震滑坡危险性评估[J].桂林理工大学学报,41(3):525-532.
Lin G C,Pan S H,Ye Z N,et al.2021.Assessment of landslide risk based on Newmark and preset earthquake[J].Journal of Guilin University of Technology,41(3):525-532.(in Chinese)
刘丽娜,许冲,徐锡伟,等.2014.GIS支持下基于AHP方法的2013年芦山地震区滑坡危险性评价[J].灾害学,29(4):183-191.
Liu L N,Xu C,Xu X W,et al.2014.GIS-based landslide hazard evaluation using AHP method in the 2013 Lushan earthquake region[J].Journal of Catastrophology,29(4):183-191.(in Chinese)
罗路广,裴向军,黄润秋,等.2021.GIS支持下CF与Logistic回归模型耦合的九寨沟景区滑坡易发性评价[J].工程地质学报,29(2):526-535.
Luo L G,Pei X J,Huang R Q,et al.2021.Landslide susceptibility assessment in Jiuzhaigou scenic area with GIS based on certainty factor and Logistic regression model[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,29(2):526-535.(in Chinese)
汪旭涛,谢昭宇,胡凯锋.2013.中高山地区滑坡发育地形地貌因子敏感性研究[J].地震工程学报,35(3):597-603.
Wang X T,Xie Z Y,Hu K F.2013.Research on the sensitivity of the landform factor of landslide development in middle and high mountain areas[J].China Earthquake Engineering Journal,35(3):597-603.(in Chinese)
王涛,刘甲美,栗泽桐,等.2021.中国地震滑坡危险性评估及其对国土空间规划的影响研究[J].中国地质,48(1):21-39.
Wang T,Liu J M,Li Z T,et al.2021.Seismic landslide hazard assessment of China and its impact on national territory spatial planning[J].Geology in China,48(1):21-39.(in Chinese)
杨德旭.2019.云南省巧家县地震前后滑坡易发性评价及地震作用影响综合研究[D].昆明:昆明理工大学.
Yang D X.2019.Comprehensive study on landslide susceptibility evaluation and seismic effect before and after earthquake in Qiaojia County,Yunnan Province[D].Kunming:Kunming University of Science and Technology.(in Chinese)
张俊,殷坤龙,王佳佳,等.2016.三峡库区万州区滑坡灾害易发性评价研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,35(2):284-296.
Zhang J,Yin K L,Wang J J,et al.2016.Evaluation of landslide susceptibility for Wanzhou district of Three Gorges Reservoir[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,35(2):284-296.(in Chinese)
张晓东,刘湘南,赵志鹏,等.2018.信息量模型、确定性系数模型与逻辑回归模型组合评价地质灾害敏感性的对比研究[J].现代地质,32(3):602-610.
Zhang X D,Liu X N,Zhao Z P,et al.2018.Comparative study of geological hazards susceptibility assessment:constraints from the information Value+Logistic Regression Model and the CF and Logistic Regression Model[J].Geoscience,32(3):602-610.(in Chinese)
FXPC/ZRZYB-01,地质灾害风险调查评价技术要求[S].
FXPC/ZRZYB-01, Specification for mapping of hazard risk survey and assessment[S].(in Chinese)
Heckerman D.1986.Probabilistic interpretations for MYCIN's certainty factors[M].North-Holland:Machine Intelligence and Pattern Recognition,167-196.
Lee S T,Yy T T,Peng W F,et al.2010.Incorporating the effects of topographic amplification in the analysis of earthquake-induced landslide hazards using logistic regression[J].Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences,10(12):2475-2488.
Shortliffe E H,Buchanan B G.1975.A model of inexact reasoning in medicine[J].Mathematical Biosciences,23(3/4):351-379.

备注

引言

1 研究区概况

2 研究方法

3 滑坡易发性评价

4 评价结果与评价精度

5 模型评价结果验证与对比分析

6 讨论

7 结论

期刊信息