地震研究

震后快速评估被压埋人员数量和空间分布,及时开展救援,是减少人员伤亡的关键。基于单体建筑功能识别,建立基于建筑功能、室内人口结构和人员在室率的人口空间化模型,以农村地区村落和城镇地区功能单元为评估单元开展大理市地震人员压埋风险评估。结果表明:19:00～7:00是人员压埋的高风险时段; Ⅷ度烈度破坏下喜洲镇人员压埋风险最高,Ⅷ度烈度以上破坏下下关镇人员压埋风险最高; 喜洲古镇,满江村、金星村、大展屯等城中村,才村、向阳村、双廊古镇等沿洱海村落,江西村、上和村、周城村等山脚古村落,是地震人员压埋的高风险区域,震后需重点关注。

The rapid assessment of the number and distribution of victims trapped in rubbles and an emergency rescue are key to reducing casualties after an earthquake.The models of population spatialization are established based on building functions,structure of indoor people,and the rate of indoor people.Using the functional units of villages and urban ditricts in Dali City as evaluation units,we assessed the risk of the trapped victims.The results show that the high-risk period of earthquake-caused burial of people in a day falls between 19 p.m.and 7 a.m. .Xizhou Ancient Town has the highest risk when hit by Intensity Ⅷ.Xiaguan Town faces the highest risk of personnel burial when subjected to the intensity exceeding VIII.The following villages have a high risk of earthquake-caused burial of people.They are Manjiang,Jinxing,Dazhantun,etc.in Dali City,Caicun,Xiangyang,Shuanglang,etc.along the Erhai Lake,and the ancient villages at the foot of the Cangshan Mountains including Jiangxi,Shanghe,Zhoucheng,etc. .These places need to be given special attention when earthquakes occur.

引言
1 研究区与数据源
2 研究方法
3 评估结果
4 结论

表1 数据来源与用途<br/>Tab.1 Data sources and data usage

表1 数据来源与用途
Tab.1 Data sources and data usage

图1 大理市(a)、喜洲镇(b)和下关镇(c)建筑功能分布<br/>Fig.1 Distribution of buildings serving different purposes in Dali City(a) Xizhou Town(b),and Xiaguan Town(c)

图1 大理市(a)、喜洲镇(b)和下关镇(c)建筑功能分布
Fig.1 Distribution of buildings serving different purposes in Dali City(a) Xizhou Town(b),and Xiaguan Town(c)

表2 数量词范围界定<br/>Tab.2 The definition of quantifiers

表2 数量词范围界定
Tab.2 The definition of quantifiers

表3 人口空间化模型参数参考值<br/>Tab.3 Reference values of the parameters of the models of population spatialization

表3 人口空间化模型参数参考值
Tab.3 Reference values of the parameters of the models of population spatialization

表4 滇西地区房屋毁坏比(%)<br/>Tab.4 Destruction ratios of buildings in western Yunnan(%)

表4 滇西地区房屋毁坏比(%)
Tab.4 Destruction ratios of buildings in western Yunnan(%)

图2 大理市(a)、喜洲镇(b)和下关镇(c)建筑结构分布<br/>Fig.2 Distribution of building structures in Dali City(a),Xizhou Town(b)and Xiaguan Town(c)

图2 大理市(a)、喜洲镇(b)和下关镇(c)建筑结构分布
Fig.2 Distribution of building structures in Dali City(a),Xizhou Town(b)and Xiaguan Town(c)

表5 不同烈度下云南历史地震与本文评估死亡率<br/>Tab.5 Death rates of historical earthquake in Yunnan and death rates evaluated in this paper in the case of different seismic intensity

表5 不同烈度下云南历史地震与本文评估死亡率
Tab.5 Death rates of historical earthquake in Yunnan and death rates evaluated in this paper in the case of different seismic intensity

图3 不同烈度破坏下各乡镇分时段压埋人数统计<br/>Fig.3 Statistics of the number of the victims trapped in the rubble in each town of Dali City at different times in the case of different seismic intensity

图3 不同烈度破坏下各乡镇分时段压埋人数统计
Fig.3 Statistics of the number of the victims trapped in the rubble in each town of Dali City at different times in the case of different seismic intensity

图4 非工作日19:00-22:00Ⅹ度烈度破坏下大理市(a)、喜洲镇(b)和下关镇(c)人员压埋分布<br/>Fig.4 Distribution of the number of the victims trapped in the rubble in Dali City(a),Xizhou Town(b),and Xiaguan Town(c)hit by Intensity X during 19: 00-22: 00 on non-working days

图4 非工作日19:00-22:00Ⅹ度烈度破坏下大理市(a)、喜洲镇(b)和下关镇(c)人员压埋分布
Fig.4 Distribution of the number of the victims trapped in the rubble in Dali City(a),Xizhou Town(b),and Xiaguan Town(c)hit by Intensity X during 19: 00-22: 00 on non-working days

大理市文化旅游局.2023.旅游[EB/OL].(2023-05-26)[2023-10-06].http://www.yndali.gov.cn/dlszf/c103384/202104/09d913eea1644a28b9c2d75736f05527.shtml.
Dali Cultural and Tourism Bureau.2023.Tourism [EB/OL].(2023-05-26)[2023-10-06].http://www.yndali.gov.cn/dlszf/c103384/202104/09d913eea1644a28b9c2d75736f05527.shtml.(in Chinese)
谷国梁,安立强,朱宏,等.2021.城市地震压埋人员分布评估研究——以天津市区为例[J].地震工程学报,43(6):1352-1360.
Gu G L,An L Q,Zhu H,et al.2021.Assessment of seismic buried personnel in urban area:A case study of Tianjin urban area,China[J].China Earthquake Engineering Journal,43(6):1352-1360.(in Chinese)
国务院第七次全国人口普查领导小组办公室.2022.中国人口普查分县资料2020[M].北京:中国统计出版社.
Office of the Leading Group for the Seventh National Population Census of the State Council.2022.Tabulation on 2020 China population census by county[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press.(in Chinese)
李永强.2009.云南人员震亡研究[D].合肥:中国科学技术大学.
Li Y Q.2009.Research on Yunnan earthquake casualty[D].Hefei:University of Science and Technology of China.(in Chinese)
卢永坤,张建国,张方浩,等.2021.2021年云南漾濞MS6.4地震烈度与震害特征[J].地震研究,44(3):429-438.
Lu Y K,Zhang J G,Zhang F H,et al.2021.The characteristics of the seismic intensity and damage of the 2021 Yangbi,Yunnan MS6.4 earthquake[J].Journal of Seismological Research,44(3):429-438.(in Chinese)
聂高众,安基文,邓砚.2012.地震应急灾情服务进展[J].地震地质,34(4):782-791.
Nie G Z,An J W,Deng Y.2012.Advances in earthquake emergency disaster service[J].Seismology and Geology,34(4):782-791.(in Chinese)
唐小龙.2014.高分辨率城市人口密度模拟——以重庆市北碚城区为例[D].重庆:西南大学.
Tang X L.2014.Simulation of high-resolution urban population density:A case study in Beibei District,Chongqing[D].Chongqing:Southwest University.(in Chinese)
田丽莉.2012.地震灾害人员伤亡影响因素分析及人员伤亡估算公式[D].北京:首都经济贸易大学.
Tian L L.2012.Analysis of factors affecting casualties in earthquake disasters and estimation formulas for casualties[D].Beijing:Capital University of Economics and Business.(in Chinese)
王紫荆,陈文凯,苏浩然,等.2020.基于区域特征的地震埋压人员评估模型研究[J].地震工程学报,42(5):1236-1247.
Wang Z J,Chen W K,Su H R,et al.2020.Evaluation model of earthquake buried personnel based on the regional characteristics[J].China Earthquake Engineering Journal,42(5):1236-1247.(in Chinese)
魏本勇,聂高众,苏桂武,等.2017.地震灾害埋压人员评估的研究进展[J].灾害学,32(1):155-159.
Wei B Y,Nie G Z,Su G W,et al.2017.Advance on the assessment methods of buried personnel distribution in earthquake disaster[J].Journal of Catastrophology,32(1):155-159.(in Chinese)
夏朝旭,聂高众,李华玥,等.2022.基于历史地震数据的地震烈度与人员死亡率相关性研究[J].中国地震,38(1):153-165.
Xia C X,Nie G Z,Li H Y,et al.2022.Research on correlation between earthquake intensity and mortality rate based on historical earthquake data[J].Earthquake Research in China,38(1):153-165.(in Chinese)
肖东升,钟祖峰.2021.基于人类动力学的地震压埋人员先验在室率研究[J].灾害学,36(1):54-59.
Xiao D S,Zhong Z F.2021.Research on indoor rate of the earthquake buried personnel based on human dynamics[J].Journal of Catastrophology,36(1):54-59.(in Chinese)
许瑞杰,贾召亮,郑川,等.2023.滇西地区基于单体建筑的震后人员死亡评估方法研究[J].地震研究,46(3):394-402.
Xu R J,Jia Z L,Zheng C,et al.2023.Study on the assessment method of post-earthquake fatality in western Yunnan based on the single building[J].Journal of Seismological Research,46(3):394-402.(in Chinese)
尹之潜.1996.结构易损性分类和未来地震灾害估计[J].中国地震,12(1):49-55.
Yin Z Q.1996.Classification of structure vulnerability and evaluating earthquake damage from future earthquake[J].Earthquake Research in China,12(1):49-55.(in Chinese)
余世舟,张令心,杨明儒.2015.地震压埋人员分布评估方法初探[J].地震工程与工程振动,35(2):138-143.
Yu S Z,Zhang L X,Yang M R.2015.Assessment of buried people distribution after earthquake[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Dynamics,35(2):138-143.(in Chinese)
云南省统计局.2022.云南统计年鉴2022[M].北京:中国统计出版社.
Statistical Bureau of Yunnan Province.2022.Yunnan statistical yearbook 2022[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press.(in Chinese)
张方浩,卢永坤,邓树荣,等.2020.云南地区区域地震灾害特征[J].地震研究,43(1):134-143.
Zhang F H,Lu Y K,Deng S R,et al.2020.Regional characteristics of the earthquake disasters in Yunnan area[J].Journal of Seismological Research,43(1):134-143.(in Chinese)
周洋,明小娜,杨健强,等.2021.基于已有地震的云南农居易损性矩阵分区研究[J].地震研究,44(2):283-291.
Zhou Y,Ming X N,Yang J Q,et al.2021.Study on the fragility matrix of rural buildings in different zones of Yunnan Province based on existing earthquakes[J].Journal of Seismological Research,44(2):283-291.(in Chinese)
周中红,陈文凯,何少林,等.2019.基于人口公里格网的地震压埋人员分布评估方法的应用与评价——以甘肃岷县漳县6.6级地震为例[J].地震研究,42(2):288-294.
Zhou Z H,Chen W K,He S L,et al.2019.Application and evaluation on an evaluating method for distribution of earthquake buried personnel based on population kilometer grid:Taking Minxian-Zhangxian MS6.6 earthquake as an example[J].Journal of Seismological Research,42(2):288-294.(in Chinese)
周中红,孙艳萍,朱瑞.2024.基于新型地震烈度快速评估方法的震后人员压埋估计[J].地球科学,49(2):437-450.
Zhou Z H,Sun Y P,Zhu R.2024.Evaluation of post-earthquake buried personnel based on a new model of seismic intensity rapid assessment[J].Earth Science,49(2):437-450.(in Chinese)
GB/T 18306—2015,中国地震动参数区划图 [S].
GB/T 18306—2015,Seismic ground motion parameters zonation map of China[S].(in Chinese)
GB/T 24335—2009,建(构)筑物地震破坏等级划分[S].
GB/T 24335—2009,Classification of earthquake damage to buildings and special structures [S].(in Chinese)
GB/T 17742—2020,中国地震烈度表[S].
GB/T 17742—2020.The Chinese seismic intensity scale[S].(in Chinese)
Wei B Y,Nie G Z,Su G W,et al.2017.Risk assessment of people trapped in earthquake based on km grid:A case study of the 2014 Ludian earthquake,China[J].Geomatics,Natural Hazards and Risk,8(2):1289-1305.

备注

引言

1 研究区与数据源

2 研究方法

3 评估结果

4 结论

期刊信息