|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]薛艳,洪敏,余怀忠,等.川滇地区强震短临综合预测研究[J].地震研究,2025,(02):272-280.[doi:10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2025.0029 ]
　XUE Yan,HONG Min,YU Huaizhong,et al.Research on Comprehensive Short-term and Imminent Prediction of Strong Earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnan Region[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2025,(02):272-280.[doi:10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2025.0029 ]
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川滇地区强震短临综合预测研究(PDF/HTML)

《地震研究》[ISSN:1000-0666/CN:53-1062/P]

卷:
期数:
2025年02期
页码:
272-280
栏目:
出版日期:
2025-02-10

文章信息/Info

Title:
Research on Comprehensive Short-term and Imminent Prediction of Strong Earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnan Region
作者:
薛艳1; 洪敏2; 余怀忠1; 姜祥华1
(1.中国地震台网中心,北京 100045; 2.云南省地震局,云南 昆明 650224)
Author(s):
XUE Yan1; HONG Min2; YU Huaizhong1; JIANG Xianghua1
(1.China Earthquake Networks Center,Beijing 100045,China)(2.Yunnan Earthquake Agency,Kunming 650224,Yunnan,China)
关键词:
短临综合预测;  权重集成法;  强震;  川滇地区
Keywords:
comprehensive short-term and imminent earthquake prediction;  weight integration method;  strong earthquakes;  Sichuan-Yunnan region
分类号:
P315.75
DOI:
10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2025.0029
摘要:
梳理了2013年以来川滇地区11次(10组)强震前短临阶段测震学和地球物理观测异常,在对这些异常进行预测效能检验的基础上,依据权重赋值规则,对异常进行权重赋值。在此基础上,使用权重集成法计算这些强震前的综合权重集成PZ值,得到了川滇地区3个重点区域(川滇交界东部、云南西北和云南西南地区)6级左右和7级左右地震的权重集成临界值,可作为短临预测的参考依据。根据宏、微观异常报告,计算2020—2023年3个重点区域每个月的PZ值。结果显示,6级以上地震主要发生在PZ值的峰值点或快速增加的过程中,少数地震发生在高值后的降低过程中。权重集成PZ值可以对群体异常进行定量描述,有助于短临预测决策由定性向定量发展。
Abstract:
In this paper,we firstly make a retrospective summary of the seismic and geophysical anomalies observed before 11(or 10 groups of)strong earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnan region since 2013.Based on the test of the anomalies' prediction effectiveness,and according to the weight assignment rules,we assign weights to the anomalies.Then,we calculate the weight integration PZ-value of the strong earthquakes using the weight integration method,and the threshold value PZ6 of 6-magnitude earthquakes and PZ7 of 7-magnitude earthquakes in three key areas(the eastern boundary between Sichuan Province and Yunnan Province,northwest Yunnan,southwest Yunnan)in Sichuan-Yunnan region are obtained.These values can be used as a reference for short-term and imminent earthquake prediction in these three key areas.In addition,according to the macro- and micro-anomaly reports,the monthly PZ-value from January 2020 to December 2023 in the three key areas are calculated.The results show that MS≥6.0 earthquakes mainly occurred at the time when PZ-value reached the peak points,or PZ-value was in the process of rapid increase.A few earthquakes occurred when PZ-value was in the process of decrease from the high value.PZ-value is capable of quantitatively describing the group-earthquake anomalies; it is helpful for the quantification of the short-term and imminent earthquake prediction.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2024-07-02.
基金项目:国家自然科学基金联合基金(U2039205); 国家重点研发计划(2018YFE0109700); 震情跟踪项目(2023020503).
第一作者简介:薛 艳(1969-),正研级高工,主要从事地震活动性和地震综合预测研究.E-mail:xueyan5619@seis.ac.cn.
通信作者简介:余怀忠(1975-),研究员,主要从事地震孕育机理和预测理论研究.E-mail:yuhz750216@sina.com.
更新日期/Last Update: 2025-03-10