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Title:: Estimation of the Risk of Earthquake-induced Tsunami by Coupling Uncertainty of Magnitude,Focal Depth and Slip Angle

作者:: 刘哲¹; 2; 任鲁川^3; (1.河北红山巨厚沉积与地震灾害国家野外科学观测研究站,河北邢台 054000; 2.唐山地震监测中心站,河北唐山 063000; 3.防灾科技学院,河北三河 065200)

Author(s):: LIU Zhe¹; 2; REN Luchuan³; (1.Hebei Hongshan National Observatory on Thick Sediments and Seismic Hazards,Xingtai 054000,Hebei,China)(2.Tangshan Earthquake Monitor Center,Tangshan 063000,Hebei,China)(3.Institute of Disaster Prevention,Sanhe 065200,Hebei,China)

Keywords:: GRACE; the dislocation model; gravity gradient; the Bengkulu; Indonesia M_W8.4 earthquake

摘要:: 选取中国东南沿海地区6个近岸场点,以马尼拉海沟俯冲带和琉球海沟俯冲带作为潜在地震海啸源区,采用广义极值地震活动性模型和广义帕累托地震活动性模型分析震级不确定性特征,通过统计震源深度的优势分布和拟合滑动角分布函数,耦合震级、震源深度和滑动角不确定性效应,得到两个俯冲带对6个场点未来30 a、50 a、100 a海啸波高超过0.4 m的地震海啸危险性估计结果。结果表明:百年内舟山近海和宁德近海特定场点遭受地震海啸袭击风险较低,随着时间的推移,从位于厦门近海至香港近海、海口近海和高雄近海的特定场点,地震海啸危险性递增。

Abstract:: Firstly,we choose 6 sites—Zhoushan,Ningde,Xiamen,Hongkong,Haikou,and Gaoxiong in the southeastern coastal areas in China as the research samples.Then we suppose the Manila trench subduction zone and the Ryukyu trench subduction zone are the potential sources of the earthquake-induced tsunami.We estimate the uncertainty of the magnitude by the Generalized Extreme Value method and the Generalized Pareto Distribution.By probabilistic statistics,we get the predominant distribution of the focal depths of the potential earthquakes in these two subduction zones.By fitting the function of slip angle's distribution and by coupling the uncertainty of magnitude,focal depth,and slip angle,we estimate that the potential earthquakes in the Manila trench subduction zone and the Ryukyu trench subduction zone would induce tsunamis whose wave height exceeds 0.4 m at the 6 sites in next 30,50 and 100 years.

备注/Memo:: 收稿日期:2022-09-13.
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41276020); 河北省地震科技星火计划项目红山野外观测站科研专项(DZ2021110800001); 河北省地震科技星火项目(DZ2021121600023).
第一作者简介:刘哲(1991-),工程师,主要从事地震灾害预测、灾害风险分析领域研究.E-mail:kuailexingyu@sina.com.
通信作者简介:任鲁川(1958-),教授,博士,主要从事地震灾害预测、海洋灾害预测、灾害风险分析领域研究.E-mail:renluchuan@sina.com.