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Title:: Analysis of the Tenth Five Digital Observation Data of Underground Water Level and Evaluation of Earthquake Prediction Efficacy in Gansu

Author(s):: ZHANG Yu¹; LIU Xiao-feng¹; SHAO Hui-cheng²; CHANG Qian-jun¹; KANG Qing-qiang¹; (1.Earthquake Administration of Gansu Province,Lanzhou 730000,Gansu,China)(2.Earthquake Administration of Shaanxi Province,Xi'an 710068,Shaanxi,China)

Keywords:: digital observation data; underground water level; dynamic characteristics; gansu and its adjacent area; earthquake prediction efficacy

摘要:: 通过对甘肃地区的“十五”数字化观测台网水位资料的年、月、日动态特征以及主要影响数字化水位资料的干扰因素等进行分析,发现大多数井点的资料连续可靠,特大地震的震后效应明显。目前数字化水位观测中存在的问题是个别井点的水位动态存在一些明显的突变和缺数。根据以往的震例总结,年变规律明显的井点,有可能在地震中期或中短期前兆异常监测中发挥一定的效能; 观测资料日均值月动态和时均值日动态规律明显的井点,在地震短期或短临前兆监测中有可能发挥一定的效能。潮汐理论用于模拟观测资料的处理方法,也可以在数字化观测资料中应用。总体来说,甘肃地区“十五”数字化水位观测质量明显要高于“九五”台网的质量。

Abstract:: This paper analyzed the data of“The Tenth Five”digital water level measurement system.We discussed the characteristics of year,month and day digital water level and application of digital data,and some maininterference factors in the measurement of digital water level.It was found that the data of most well points are reliable,where the post-seismic effect is very obvious.At present,the main problem in measuring digital water level is some significant abrupt shifts and omissions in dividual points.Judging from previous earthquake examples,well points with obvious annual variations may have some efficiency in monitoring short-term or short-impending precursor of earthquake.The theory of tides is suitable to process the analog observation data,and to process the digital data as well.In the main the quality of digital water level observation using“The Tenth Five”system has an advantage over“The Ninth Five”system in Gansu region.