|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]苏有锦,李忠华.云南地区6级以上强震时间分布特征及其概率预测模型研究*[J].地震研究,2011,34(01):0.
　SU You-jin,LI Zhong-hua.Interval Distribution and Probability Model of the Strong Earthquakes with M≥6.0 in Yunnan[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2011,34(01):0.
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云南地区6级以上强震时间分布特征及其概率预测模型研究*(PDF/HTML)

《地震研究》[ISSN:1000-0666/CN:53-1062/P]

卷:
34
期数:
2011年01期
页码:
0
栏目:
出版日期:
2011-03-09

文章信息/Info

Title:
Interval Distribution and Probability Model of the Strong Earthquakes with M≥6.0 in Yunnan
作者:
苏有锦; 李忠华
(云南省地震局,昆明 650224)
Author(s):
SU You-jin; LI Zhong-hua
(Earthquake Administration of Yunnan Province,Kunming 650224,Yunnan,China)
关键词:
6级以上强震;  间隔时间;  分布特征;  概率预测模型;  预测预警指标;  云南地区
Keywords:
M≥6.0 strong earthquakes;  interval distribution features;  probability model;  prediction-warning index;  Yunnan region
分类号:
P315.75
DOI:
-
摘要:
系统分析了云南地区M≥6.0、M≥6.5和M≥7.0地震的间隔时间分布特征; 运用M≥5.0地震目录,基于G—R关系的年发生率和泊松分布模型,构建了云南地区M≥6.0、M≥6.5和M≥7.0地震的概率预测模型; 结合间隔时间分布统计特征和概率预测模型,对云南地区M≥6.0、M≥6.5和M≥7.0地震,建立了具有概率水平的三级预测预警指标:C(黄)、B(橙)、A(红)。
Abstract:
The interval distribution features of the earthquakes with M≥6.0,M≥6.5 and M≥7.0 occurred from 1900 to 2009 in Yunnan region are systematically analyzed in this paper.Based on the G-R relation and Poisson model,the probability model of the earthquakes with M≥6.0,M≥6.5 and M≥7.0 are built by using the M≥5.0 earthquake catalogs.Then,the three-grade,prediction-warning indexes(C(yellow),B(orange),A(red))for the earthquakes with M≥6.0,M≥6.5 and M≥7.0 are developed on the basis of the interval features and the probability model.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2010-07-08
基金项目:云南省地震预报研究专项(JCYB-20080601-1)和中国地震局地震行业科研专项(200708038)联合资助.

更新日期/Last Update: 2011-03-30