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Title:: Application of the Variation of Precursory Field to the Prediction of the Location of earthquakes

Author(s):: LIAO Li-xia; Guan Yu-mei; YE Xiao-ming; (Earthquake Administration of Fujian Province,Fuzhou 350003,Fujian,China)

Keywords:: precursory field; stress field; water-level post-seismic effect; migration patterns; Fujian area

摘要:: 运用福建前兆观测台网资料,分析了形变应力场和水位震后效应场等前兆场的空间变化规律与福建区域地震的相关性。结果显示,福建多次M_L>4.5地震的孕育过程均伴随着形变应力及水位震后效应的成场。研究认为,当形变应力场与水位震后效应场的时空演化规律趋于一致时,这一区域就具备发生中强以上地震的背景条件,跟踪分析形变应力场及水位震后效应场的空间迁移规律,可对未来发生的地震的空间位置做出较为准确的判断。

Abstract:: We analyze the relation between the precursory fields such as the deformation stress field and the post-seismic effect field of water level with the earthquakes ever occurred in Fujian area on the basis of the data from the precursor network in Fujian Province,and find that many M_L4.5 earthquakes occurred in Fujian area were accompanied by the formation of the deformation stress field and post-seismic effect field of water level.When the migration of the field of post-seismic effect of water level and field of deformation stress are identical,the related area has the probability of medium-strong earthquakes' occurrence.Analyzing the migration of post-seismic effect of water level and crustal deformation,we may predict the location of the earthquakes.