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Title:: Application of Earthquake Monitoring Using Measurements of Ground Deformation by GPS and Crustal Stress by Kaiser Effect in the Region of Kunming-Yuxi,Yunnan

作者:: 黄永祥¹; 李延兴²; 黄浩雄³; 王伶俐¹; (1.云南省地震局,云南昆明 650224; 2.中国地震局一测中心,天津 300180; 3.美国特拉华大学土木系,Newark.DE19716)

Author(s):: HUANG Yongxiang¹; LI Yanxing²; HUANG Haoxiong³; WANG Lingli¹; (1.Yunnan Earthquake Agency,Kunming 650224,Yunnan,China)(2.The First Monitoring and Application Center,China Earthquake Administration,TianJin 300180,China)(3.Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,University of Delaware,Newark,DE 19716)

关键词:: GPS地形变测量; Kaiser效应法地应力测量; 联合并网; 同步监测; 地形变场; 地应力场; 本构定律; 岩石力学判据组合; 发震应力条件; 大震跟踪

Keywords:: ground deformation measurement by GPS; crustal stress measurement by Kaiser effect(K); combined network; simultaneous monitoring; field of ground deformation; field of crustal stress; constitutive law; rock mechanics criterion; stress condition for earthquake occurrence; large earthquake tracing

摘要:: 2000—2001年川滇地区有大震震情趋势,应用GPS地形变测量(G),Kaiser效应法地应力测量(K)技术,采用GK联合并网方法,同步监测云南昆明—玉溪地区及邻区地形变场、地应力场; 依托本构定律及岩石学组合判据,进行发震应力条件、发震几率、震级大小的分析研究; 得出云南地区3～5年内不具备发生M_S≥7.0大震的发震应力条件; 同时划出滇东北形变高值区,10年左右有可能发生M_S6.0～7.0地震。

Abstract:: From 2000 to 2001,there was trends of potential large earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yuan region.This paper investigated the application of a new technology combining the ground deformation measurement from GPS(G)and the crustal stress measurement from Kaiser effect(K).This technology simultaneously monitored the fields of ground deformation and crustal stress using combined G-K network.Based on the constitutive law and rock mechanics criterion,the stress condition,probability,and magnitude of potential earthquake occurrence were analyzed.It concluded that the Yunnan region lacked the stress condition for large earthquakes of M_S≥7.0.Northeast Yunnan was identified to have large ground deformation and earthquakes of M_S6.0～7.0 that might occur in 10 years.Overall the conclusions were consistent with the actual occurrence of earthquakes in Yunnan.