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《地震研究》[ISSN:1000-0666/CN:53-1062/P]

卷:

43

期数:

2020年01期

页码:

45-56

栏目:

出版日期:

2020-01-30

文章信息/Info

Title:

Probabilistic Earthquake Prediction of Yunnan Region by Using Non-stationary Poisson Model

作者:

钱晓东; 彭关灵; 贺素歌

(云南省地震局,云南 昆明 650224)

Author(s):

QIAN Xiaodong; PENG Guanling; HE Suge

(Yunnan Earthquake Agency,Kunming 650224,Yunnan,China)

关键词:

非稳态泊松模型;  地震发生率;  综合概率;  云南地区

Keywords:

non-stationary Poisson model;  earthquake occurrence rate;  Yunnan region;  synthetical;  probability

分类号:

P315.72

DOI:

-

摘要:

针对强震中长期概率预测问题,提出基于非稳态泊松过程的概率计算方法,通过稳态与非稳态模型对比研究,发现非稳态泊松模型随时间而变化的地震发生率能更好地描述强震发生规律。利用非稳态泊松模型计算了地震发生的理论概率,发现理论概率受到预测精度、平静时间、最近地震大小等诸多因素影响,利用权重集成法计算了强震发生的综合概率。结果表明:①地震发生的累积频度随时间的非线性变化可用幂指数函数来描述; ②基于非稳态泊松模型的地震发生率随时间而变化,与地震发生率恒定不变的稳态模型相比,前者对地震活跃-平静韵律状态更加敏感; ③云南地区9个地震带强震发生的综合概率计算结果显示:以2019年12月31日为截止时间,小江地震带和通海—石屏地震带综合概率较高,大于0.6; 其次为中甸—大理地震带、楚雄—南华地震带和澜沧—耿马地震带,综合概率范围为0.5～0.59,其它地震带综合概率均小于0.5。

Abstract:

For the medium-and long-term probabilistic prediction of strong earthquakes problem,we propose a probability calculation method based on the non-stationary Poisson process,through a comparative study on stationary and non-stationary models,we find that the time-dependent earthquake occurrence rate of the non-stationary Poisson model can better describe the occurrence law of strong earthquakes.Using the non-stationary Poisson model,we calculated the theoretical probability of earthquake occurrence,and the theoretical probability is affected by many factors such as prediction accuracy,quiet time,recent earthquake magnitude,etc.The synthetical probability of strong earthquakes was calculated by the weighted integration method.The result shows that,①the nonlinear change of the cumulative frequency of earthquakes with time can be described by power exponential function.②Compared to the stationary Poisson model with a constant earthquake rate,the non-stationary Poisson model with variable earthquake occurrence rate with time is more sensitive to the state of active-quiet rhythm.③The synthetical probability Computed results of strong earthquakes in 9 seismic belts in Yunnan area show that,take December 31,2019 as the current time,Xiaojiang seismic belt and Tonghai Shiping seismic belt have higher comprehensive probability,the value is greater than 0.6.And the next are Zhongdian Dali seismic belt,Chuxiong Nanhua seismic belt and Lancang Gengma seismic belt,the synthetical probability is in the range of 0.5～0.59.The synthetical probability of other seismic zones is less than 0.5.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:

收稿日期:2019-08-12
基金项目:重点地震危险区及构造带数字地震学研究项目资助.

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更新日期/Last Update: 2020-01-30