文章摘要

文章信息/Info

Title:: Progress of Earthquake Forecasting Research in the Last Decade in the World

Author(s):: JIANG Cong¹; JIANG Changsheng¹; ZHANG Yan¹; BI Jinmeng²; (1.Institute of Geophysics,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100081,China)(2.Tianjin Earthquake Agency,Tianjin 300201,China)

Keywords:: earthquake forecasting; mitigation of earthquake disaster risk; earthquake forecast model; statistical test

摘要:: 跟踪和总结地震预测在国际上的研究进展,是调整优化我国自主进行与地震预测相关的科学研究和推进学科建设的重要方式之一。为反映近10年来国际上地震预测研究的进展与变化趋势,通过文献计量学分析、国际科学研究计划介绍和主要研究成果总结等方式,给出我国地震预测相关研究在国际研究体系中可能的位置,并概括了近10年来在全球性科学研究计划主导下国际上取得的主要科学进展,包括预测模型研发、提升预测可操作性、拓展地震减灾应用等方面,极大地丰富了地震预测相关学科的科学内涵并融入经济社会发展的成效,这些将对我国地震预测相关科学研究有着重要的启发意义。

Abstract:: Tracking and summarizing the international progress in research related to earthquake forecast is an important way to adjust and optimize the scientific research of earthquake forecast in China and promote the construction of corresponding disciplines. In order to reflect the progress and trend of earthquake forecast research in the world for the past 10 years,this paper clarifies the possible “position” of earthquake forecast research of China in international research scale,by means of bibliometric analysis,introduction of international scientific research plan and summary of main research results; summarizes main international scientific progress in the past 10 years under the guidance of global scientific research project. Many aspects,including remarkable progress in the research,development of forecast model,improvement of Operational Earthquake Forecasting,expansion of application of earthquake disaster reduction,etc.,greatly enriched the scientific connotation of earthquake forecast discipline and built the effect of integration into economic and social development. All of items mentioned above will have important and enlightening significance to the scientific research in earthquake forecast in China for the future.