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《地震研究》[ISSN:1000-0666/CN:53-1062/P]

卷:

46

期数:

2023年02期

页码:

226-236

栏目:

出版日期:

2023-06-01

文章信息/Info

Title:

Retrospective Study on the Forecast of the 2021 Maduo M_S7.4 Earthquake by PI Method

作者:

宋 程¹; 张永仙²; 周少辉³; 毕金孟¹; 徐小远¹

(1.天津市地震局,天津 300201; 2.中国地震局地震预测研究所,北京 100036; 3.山东省地震局,山东 济南 250014)

Author(s):

SONG Cheng¹; ZHANG Yongxian²; ZHOU Shaohui³; BI Jinmeng¹; XU Xiaoyuan¹

(1.Tianjin Earthquake Agency,Tianjin 300201,China)(2.Institute of Earthquake Forecasting,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100036,China)(3.Shandong Earthquake Agency,Jinan 250014,Shandong,China)

关键词:

玛多M_S7.4地震;  PI方法;  热点;  回溯性预测

Keywords:

the Maduo M_S7.4 earthquake;  the Pattern Informatics(PI)method;  hotspot;  retrospective forecast

分类号:

P315.7

DOI:

10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2023.0027

摘要:

应用图像信息(PI)方法研究2021年玛多M_S7.4地震前后的热点特征变化。以8 a预测窗长、0.8°×0.8°网格尺度为主要参数,获取2009—2028年逐年滑动的预测窗热点分布图像。结果显示:① 在2009—2020年的5个连续回溯性预测窗口中,玛多地震的震中所在网格及其摩尔邻近网格持续存在密集热点,对发震地点指示作用较强。② 2014—2028年,多数预测窗口内玛多地震震中或摩尔邻近网格出现过PI热点; 在最后3个连续预测窗口内(2019—2026年、2020—2027年、2021—2028年),震中附近出现密集深色热点且呈逐渐收缩的趋势,对发震紧迫性具有一定的指示意义。③ 综合2009年以来的热点演化图像可知,巴颜喀拉地块、柴达木地块、祁连地块和羌塘地块内都出现过热点,出现在巴颜喀拉地块与柴达木地块交界玛多县附近的热点频次高、颜色深、覆盖面较大,表明青藏块体内部巴颜喀拉地块中北缘地震活动性较强、相对发震风险较高。

Abstract:

In this paper,the Pattern Informatics(PI)method was applied to the retrospective study on the forecast of the 2021 Maduo M_S7.4 earthquake.The local area(30.0°N-40.0°N,94.0°E-106.0°E)of Qinghai-Tibet tectonic block was chosen as the study region.With parameters of the 8-year-long forecasting window and the 0.8°× 0.8°-sized grid,successive forecasting hotspot diagrams were obtained in the period from 2009 to 2028.The results showed that:①In five successive forecasting windows covering the period from 2009 to 2020,continuous dense hotspots appeared in the grid in which the Maduo epicenter located and in its neighboring Moore grids.These hotspots strongly indicated the location of the Maduo earthquake.②In the period from 2014 to 2028,PI hotspots appeared in the grid in which the Maduo epicenter located or in its neighboring Moore grids in most forecasting windows.In the three continuous forecasting windows after 2018(2019-2026,2020-2027 and 2021-2028),dark hotspots appeared near the epicenter of the Maduo M_S7.4 earthquake and showed a gradual tendency of contraction,which indicated the impending occurrence of the Maduo M_S7.4 earthquake.③According to the continuous hotspot diagrams since 2009,hotspots appeared in the Bayankala block,the Qaidam block,the Qilian block and the Qiangtang block.Relatively,hotspots appearing at the junction of the Bayankala block and the Qaidam block near Maduo county had higher frequency,darker color,larger coverage.The results indicates that the middle part of the northern margin of the Bayankala block in the Qinghai-Tibet tectonic block has stronger seismicity and higher potential earthquake risk.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:

收稿日期:2022-04-07.
基金项目:震情跟踪定向任务(2021010104,2021010128); 国家重点研发计划“中国地震科学实验场的地震可预测性国际合作研究(2018YFE0109700); 国家自然基金委地震联合基金“基于数值模拟的确定性——概率地震危险性分析方法研究(U2039207); 天津市地震局局内重点科研项目(Zd202202,Zd202304).
第一作者简介:宋 程(1992-),工程师,主要从事地震预报分析相关研究.E-mail:nibushiwode798@163.com.
通讯作者简介:张永仙(1965-),研究员,主要从事地震预测理论与方法研究.E-mail:yxzhseis@sina.com.

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