«上一篇/Previous Article|本期目录/Table of Contents|下一篇/Next Article»

《地震研究》[ISSN:1000-0666/CN:53-1062/P]

卷:

期数:

2025年02期

页码:

177-187

栏目:

出版日期:

2025-02-10

文章信息/Info

Title:

Construction of Software Systems of the CSEP Testing Center in China

作者:

余怀忠; 于晨; 张小涛; 苑争一; 钟骏; 解孟雨; 李泽平; 张靖雪

(中国地震台网中心,北京 100045)

Author(s):

YU Huaizhong; YU Chen; ZHANG Xiaotao; YUAN Zhengyi; ZHONG Jun; XIE Mengyu; LI Zeping; ZHANG Jingxue

(China Earthquake Networks Center,Beijing 100045,China)

关键词:

CSEP检验中心;  预测模块;  检验模块;  集成功能;  开放性

Keywords:

CSEP testing center;  prediction modules;  testing modules;  integrated functionality;  openness

分类号:

P315.7

DOI:

10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2025.0019

摘要:

为提升地震预测方法评价的标准化和应用的规范化,依托国家重点研发计划尝试把CSEP(Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability)移植到中国,建立中国CSEP检验中心。自主研发了加卸载响应比(LURR)、地壳振动、态矢量和地震综合概率预测模块; 引进了国外的图像信息(PI)、相对强度(RI)、传染型余震序列(ETAS)预测模型并完成模块研发; 遴选出Molchan检验、R值评分、N值检验和ROC检验等国际认可的地震预报效能评价方法,以集成方式搭建运行平台。作为开放性检验中心,通过不断纳入新的算法,着力提升地震预测能力、推进地震预测实践,将地震预报业务中常用的地震发生率指数、小震调制比、b值等预测方法纳入到中心运行。中心的软件系统既能够完成回顾性预测检验,又能够实现前瞻性预测分析,可为现有预测方法提供运行环境和技术支持。

Abstract:

In order to improve standardization of evaluation of earthquake prediction methods,we have attempted to transplant the Collaboration for the Study of Earthquake Prediction(CSEP)to China based on the support of the National Key Research and Development Project,and established a platform for testing earthquake prediction methods.We have developed the prediction modules of Load/Unload Response Ratio(LURR),crustal vibration,state vector,and earthquake comprehensive probability,meanwhile,we have introduced the pattern information(PI),the relative intensity(RI),and the infectious aftershock sequence(ETAS)prediction models.In addition,four earthquake prediction performance evaluation methods,including the Molchan,R-score,N-score,and ROC techniques,were adopted to test above prediction methods.As an open system,we have also incorporated the methods that commonly used prediction practice in China,such as the earthquake occurrence rate,earthquake modulation ratio,and b-value into the testing center.The testing center can perform both retrospective predictive tests and prospective predictive analysis,providing an operating environment and technical support for existing prediction methods.The software system of our testing center helps to systemically test the existing earthquake prediction methods and achieve standardized application.In addition,through comprehensive probability prediction,the quantification of earthquake prediction is promoted and decision-making is optimized.Relevant research results might be gradually applied to the medium-to-short-term prediction work in China.

参考文献/References:

陈丽娟,陈学忠,龚丽文,等.2022.2021年泸县M_S6.0地震前视应力和b值以及中小地震与地球自转相关性分析[J].大地测量与地球动力学,42(11):1133-1137.
Chen L J,Chen X Z,Gong L W,et al.2022.The apparent stress and b value and the relation between Earth's rotation and small and medium earthquakes before the 2021 M_S6.0 Luxian Earthquake[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,42(11):1133-1137.(in Chinese)
程佳,姚生海,刘杰,等.2018.2017年九寨沟地震所受历史地震黏弹性库仑应力作用及其后续对周边断层地震危险性的影响[J].地球物理学报,61(5):2133-2151.
Cheng J,Yao S H,Liu J,et al.2018.Viscoelastic Coulomb stress of historical earthquakes on the 2017 Jiuzhaigou earthquake and the subsequent influence on the seismic hazards of adjacent faults[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,61(5):2133-2151.(in Chinese)
高雅婧,孙云强,罗纲.2022.1999年集集地震前后台湾地区地震b值及应力场时空演化特征[J].地球物理学报,65(6):2137-2152.
Gao Y J,Sun Y Q,Luo G.2022.Temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of b value and stress field in Taiwan before and after the 1999 Chi-Chi Earthquake[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,65(6):2137-2152.(in Chinese)
韩颜颜,孟令媛,刘桂萍,等.2017.西北地区中强震前固体潮调制比时空特征分析[J].地震学报,39(5):738-750.
Han Y Y,Meng L Y,Liu G P,et al.2017.The spatial-temporal characteristics of earth tide modulation ratio before moderate earthquakes in northwest China[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,39(5):738-750.(in Chinese)
蒋长胜,庄建仓.2010.基于时-空ETAS模型给出的川滇地区背景地震活动和强震潜在危险区[J].地球物理学报,53(2):305-317.
Jiang C S,Zhuang J C.2010.Evaluation of background seismicity and potential source zones of strong earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunan region based on the space-time ETAS model[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,53(2):305-317.(in Chinese)
李兵,谢富仁,黄金水,等.2022.龙门山断裂带大邑地震空区地应力状态与地震危险性[J].中国科学:地球科学,52(7):1409-1418.
Li B,Xie F R,Huang J S,et al.2022.In situ stress state and seismic hazard in the Dayi seismic gap of the Longmenshan thrust belt[J].Scientia Sinica Terrae,52(7):1409-1418.(in Chinese)
马茹莹,王培玲,刘文邦,等.2021.2018年2月—2019年4月青海M_L4.0地震条带异常特征及指示意义[J].地震地磁观测与研究,42(2):121-122.
Ma R Y,Wang P L,Liu W B,et al.2021.Anomaly characteristics and indicative significance of M_L4.0 seismic belt in Qinghai from February 2018 to April 2019[J].Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research,42(2):121-122.(in Chinese)
邵志刚,武艳强,季灵运,等.2022.中国大陆活动地块边界带主要断层的强震震间晚期综合判定[J].地球物理学报,65(12):4643-4658.
Shao Z G,Wu Y Q,Ji L Y,et al.2022.Comprehensive determination for the late stage of the interseismic period of major faults in the boundary zone of active tectonic blocks in Chinese mainland[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,65(12):4643-4658.(in Chinese)
王芃,邵志刚,刘晓霞,等.2022.中国陆区活动地块边界带主要断层10年尺度强震发生概率[J].地球物理学报,65(10):3829-3843.
Wang P,Shao Z G,Liu X X,et al.2022.Ten-year probability of strong earthquakes on major faults in boundaries of active blocks in Chinese continent[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,65(10):3829-3843.(in Chinese)
王未来,房立华,吴建平,等.2021.2021年青海玛多M_S7.4地震序列精定位研究[J].中国科学:地球科学,51(7):1193-1202.
Wang W L,Fang L H,Wu J P,et al.2021.Aftershock sequence relocation of the 2021 M_S7.4 Maduo Earthquake,Qinghai,China[J].Scientia Sinica Terrae,51(7):1193-1202.(in Chinese)
许绍爕.1989.地震预报能力评分[C]//地震预报方法实用化研究文集地震学专辑.北京:地震出版社,586-589.
Xu S X.1989.Earthquake prediction ability score[C]//Seismic prediction method practical research collection:seismological album. Beijing:Seismological Press:586-589.(in Chinese)
易桂喜,闻学泽,苏有锦.2008.川滇活动地块东边界强震危险性研究[J].地球物理学报,51(6):1719-1725.
Yi G X,Wen X Z,Su Y J.2008.Study on the potential strong-earthquake risk for the eastern boundary of the Sichuan-Yunnan active faulted-block,China[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,51(6):1719-1725.(in Chinese)
尹祥础,陈学忠,宋治平.1994.加卸载响应比理论及其在地震预测中的应用研究进展[J].地球物理学报,37(1):223-230.
Yin X C,Chen X Z,Song Z P.1994.The development of Load-Unload Response Ratio theory and its application to earthquake predication[J].Acta Geophysica, 37(1):223-230.(in Chinese)
尹祥础,余怀忠,张永仙,等.2004.态矢量——分析地震活动性的一种新方法[J].中国地震,20(1):73-79.
Yin X C,Yu H Z,Zhang Y X,et al.2004.State vector—a new method to analysis seismicity[J].Earthquake Research in China,20(1):73-79.(in Chinese)
于晨,王淑艳,陈界宏,等.2021.2019年6月17日长宁M_S6.0地震前后地壳振动异常分析[J].中国地震,37(1):84-94.
Yu C,Wang S Y,Chen J H,et al.2021.Anomalies of ground vibrations before and after the June 17,2019 Sichuan Changing M_S6.0 earthquake[J].Earthquake Research in China,37(1):84-94.(in Chinese)
Chen C H,Lin L C,Yeh T K,et al 2020.Determination of epicenters before earthquakes utilizing far seismic and GNSS data:Insights from ground vibrations[J].Remote Sensing,12:3252.
Field E D.2007.Special issue:regional earthquake likelihood models[J].Seism Res Lett,78(1):1-140.
Holliday J R,Rundle J B,Tiampo K F,et al.2005.Systematic procedural and sensitivity analysis of the Pattern Informatics method for forecasting large earthquake events in Southern California[J].Pure Appl Geophys,163:2433-2454.
Jordan T H,Jones L M.2010.Operational earthquake forecasting:Some thoughts on why and how[J].Seismological Research Letters,81(4):571-574.
Jordan T H,Marzocchi W,Michael A J,et al.2006.Operational earthquake forecasting can enhance earthquake preparedness[J].Seismological Research Letters,77(5):955-959.
Molchan G, Keilis-Borok V.2008.Earthquake prediction: probabilistic aspect[J].Geophysical Journal International, 173(3):1012-1017.
Rundle J B,Klein W,Tiampo K,et al.2000.Linear pattern dynamics in nonlinear threshold systems[J].Phys Rev,E61:2418-2431.
Rundle J B,Turcotte D L,Shcherbakov R,et al.2003.Statistical physics approach to understanding the multiscale dynamics of earthquake fault systems[J].Rev Geophys,41(4):1019.
Schorlemmer D,Gerstenberger M C,Wiemer S.2007.Earthquake likelihood model testing[J].Seismological Research Letters,78(1):17-29.
Schorlemmer D,Werner M,Marzocchi W,et al.2018.The collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictability:achievements and priorities[J].Seismological Research Letters,89(4):1305-1313.
Tanimoto T,Ishimaru S,Alvizuri1 C.2006.Seasonality in particle motion of microseisms[J].Geophys Journal International,166(1):253-266.
Wu Y Q,Jiang Z S,and Yang G H.2011.Comparison of GPS strain rate computing methods and their reliability[J].Geophysical Journal International,185(2):703-717.
Yu H Z,Cheng J,Zhang X T,et al.2013.Multi-methods combined analysis of future earthquake potential[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,170:173-183.
Yu H Z,Yan R,Deng S G,et al.2024.Improved medium-to-short-term earthquake predictions in China in 2022[J].Geomatics,Natural Hazards and Risk,Doi:10.1080/19475705.2024.2350482.
Yu H Z,Yu C,Ma Y C,et al.2021.Determining stress state of source media with identified difference between groundwater level during loading and unloading induced by earth tides[J].Water,13:2843.
Yu H Z,Yuan Z Y,Yu C,et al.2022.The medium-to-short-term earthquake predictions in China and their evaluations based on the R-Score[J].Seismol Res Lett,93(2A):840-852.
Zechar J D,Jordan T H.2008.Testing alarm-based earthquake predictions[J].Geophysical Journal International,172(2):715-724.
Zhao J,Yuan Z Y,Ren J W,et al.2022.Acceleration of deep slip along the Longmenshan fault plane before the 2008 M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake[J].Frontiers in Earth Science,10:830317.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:

收稿日期:2024-04-03.
基金项目:国家自然科学基金联合基金(U2039205); 国家重点研发计划(2018YFE0109700).
第一作者简介:余怀忠(1975-),研究员,主要从事地震孕育机理和预测理论研究.E-mail:yuhz750216@sina.com.

常用功能

更新日期/Last Update: 2025-03-10