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《地震研究》[ISSN:1000-0666/CN:53-1062/P]

卷:

期数:

2025年02期

页码:

210-219

栏目:

出版日期:

2025-02-10

文章信息/Info

Title:

Research on Fault Hydrogen Anomaly Mechanism based on the Load/Unload Response Ratio Theory

作者:

贾东辉¹; 2; 余怀忠³; 赵彬彬²; 张 涛²; 刘海洋⁴

(1.成都理工大学 地球与行星科学学院,四川 成都 610059; 2.新疆维吾尔自治区地震局,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830011; 3.中国地震台网中心,北京 100045; 4.阿克苏地区地震监测中心站,新疆 阿克苏 843000)

Author(s):

JIA Donghui¹; 2; YU Huaizhong³; ZHAO Binbin²; ZHANG Tao²; LIU Haiyang⁴

(1.College of Earth and Planet Sciences,Chengdu University of Technology,Chengdu 610059,Sichuan,China)(2.Earthquake Agency of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Urumqi 830011,Xinjiang,China)(3.China Earthquake Networks Center,Beijing 100045,China)(4.Aksu Earthquake Monitoring Center Station,Aksu 843000,Xinjiang,China)

关键词:

断层氢气;  加卸载响应比;  异常机理;  地震前兆;  构造活动

Keywords:

hydrogen;  Load/Unload Response Ratio;  anomaly mechanism;  earthquake precursor;  tectonic activity

分类号:

P315.72

DOI:

10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2025.0022

摘要:

使用新疆阿克苏台和库尔勒台断层氢气观测数据,研究氢气的映震能力; 结合潮汐应力与氢气动态变化之间的关系,采用加卸载响应比方法对这2个台断层氢气的异常变化机理和映震机制进行研究,分析潮汐应力加载状态下氢气的响应特征; 对比原始观测数据与加卸载响应比映震效能,提高异常识别能力。结果表明:断层氢气变化具有潮汐效应,在地壳应力加载作用下,对潮汐应力反应灵敏,氢气高值异常多出现在调制时段; 加卸载响应比计算结果显示,相对于原始观测数据异常指标报准率,加卸载响应比的预报效能更优,LURR=1.02可作为断层氢气的异常阈值,超阈值后观测点周边地区短期存在5级以上地震活动危险性。该指标通过了R值检验评估。

Abstract:

The fault's hydrogen data which are observed by Aksu station and Korla station in Xinjiang are used to study the relationship between the tidal stress and the hydrogen dynamics in this area.The Load/Unload Response Ratio(LURR)theory is used to explore the abnormal change mechanism and the earthquake precursory mechanism of the fault's hydrogen,to obtain the response characteristics of the hydrogen under the action of the tidal stress loading.The results show that the variation of fault's hydrogen has tidal effect; it is sensitive to tidal stress in the case of the crustal stress loading.The hydrogen's high-value anomaly occurs mostly in the modulation period.According to the calculation of the Load/Unload Response Ratio,the Load/Unload Response Ratio has better prediction efficiency than the original observation data.The number 1.02 can be used as a threshold for judging the fault's hydrogen anomaly; when LURR value exceeds the threshold,there would exist a risk of moderate-and strong-earthquake in a short term in the study area.This index has passed the R-value test evaluation.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:

收稿日期:2024-04-15.
基金项目:中国地震局震情跟踪定向工作任务(2024010313); 国家自然科学基金地震联合基金(U2039205); 国家重点研发计划(2018YFE0109700); 中国地震局监测、预报、科研三结合课题(3JH-202401055).
第一作者简介:贾东辉(1989-),工程师,主要从事地震地下流体与地震预测研究.E-mail:jdh830000@163.com.
通信作者简介:余怀忠(1975-),研究员,主要从事地震孕育机理和预测理论研究.E-mail:yuhz750216@sina.com.

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