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《地震研究》[ISSN:1000-0666/CN:53-1062/P]

卷:

期数:

2025年02期

页码:

264-271

栏目:

出版日期:

2025-02-10

文章信息/Info

Title:

Research on the Features of the Benioff Strain Ratio in Xinjiang Region before Earthquakes above M_S6.0

作者:

杨文; 余怀忠; 张小涛

(中国地震台网中心,北京 100045)

Author(s):

YANG Wen; YU Huaizhong; ZHANG Xiaotao

(China Earthquake Networks Center,Beijing 100045,China)

关键词:

Benioff应变比;  新疆地区;  最小完备性震级;  地震预测

Keywords:

Benioff strain ratio;  Xinjiang region;  minimum complete magnitude;  earthquake prediction

分类号:

P315.7

DOI:

10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2025.0028

摘要:

强震发生前,震中附近地区普遍存在应变能加速释放现象,预示孕震区接近或进入临界状态。以Benioff应变作为响应量,计算不同时段的Benioff应变比,可作为表征应变能释放快慢的参数,其异常演化反映了地震成核过程中介质的高应力状态。利用中国地震台网地震目录,首先对新疆地区最小完备性震级进行分析。在此基础上,计算2000—2023年新疆地区6级以上地震前1年内每月前后90天的Benioff应变比,并以2016年阿克陶6.7级地震和呼图壁6.2级地震为例,对两次地震前的Benioff应变比时空演化特征进行分析。结果显示:18组6级地震中有14组地震在震前1年内在震中附近出现高值异常,通过预测效果检验,表明Benioff应变比高值异常对新疆地区6级地震具有一定中短期预测意义。在2016年阿克陶6.7级地震和呼图壁6.2级地震前1年内孕震区应变比均表现为“逐渐升高—快速降低—稳定波动”的特征,可能与断层失稳成核过程有关。

Abstract:

Before a strong earthquake occurs,the accelerated release of strain energy is common in the area near the epicenter,indicating that the seismogenic area is approaching or entering a critical state.Taking the Benioff strain as the response quantity,the Benioff strain ratio at different periods is calculated,which can be used as a parameter to characterize the speed of strain energy release,and its abnormal evolution reflects the high-stress state of the intermediate substance during seismic nucleation.The minimum complete magnitude is analyzed based on the earthquake catalog provided by the China Earthquake Networks Center,then the 90-day Benioff strain ratio before and after each month is calculated one year before the M_S6 earthquakes in Xinjiang since the year 2000.The results show that 14 of the 18 groups of earthquakes were located in the high-value anomaly region within one year. This passes the prediction effect test,indicating that the high-value anomaly of the Benioff strain ratio had significance for the medium- and short-term prediction of M_S6 earthquakes in Xinjiang region.One year before the Aketao M_S6.7 earthquake and the Hutubi M_S6.2 earthquake in 2016,the strain ratio in the seismogenic zone increased gradually,then decreased rapidly,and kept fluctuating stably.This may be related to the unstable nucleation of the fault.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:

收稿日期:2024-06-18.
基金项目:中国地震科技星火计划(XH23046YA); 国家自然科学基金联合基金(U2039205); 国家重点研发计划(2018YFE0109700).
第一作者简介:杨 文(1986-),高级工程师,主要从事地震活动性和数字地震学工作.E-mail:longjing456@126.com.
通信作者简介:余怀忠(1975-),研究员,主要从事地震孕育机理和预测理论研究.E-mail:yuhz750216@sina.com.

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更新日期/Last Update: 2025-03-10