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《地震研究》[ISSN:1000-0666/CN:53-1062/P]

卷:

期数:

2025年02期

页码:

289-299

栏目:

出版日期:

2025-02-10

文章信息/Info

Title:

Study on the Medium- and Short-term,Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Earthquake Swarm Activities in South China

作者:

黎明晓; 余怀忠; 薛艳; 闫伟; 姜祥华

(中国地震台网中心,北京 100045)

Author(s):

LI Mingxiao; YU Huaizhong; XUE Yan; YAN Wei; JIANG Xianghua

(China Earthquake Networks Center,Beijing 100045,China)

关键词:

华南震群;  中短期;  时空特征;  效能检验

Keywords:

earthquake swarms in South China;  medium- and short-term;  spatial and temporal characteristics;  efficiency test

分类号:

P315.75

DOI:

10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2025.0031

摘要:

研究了2010—2023年华南地区M_L≥2.0震群在不同时间窗的频次与中强地震的关系; 在预测效能评价的基础上,分析了华南地区震群活动的中短期时空特征; 结合地震活动和地球物理观测异常,讨论了中强地震的孕震过程。结果表明:① 华南地区M_L≥2.0震群2个月频次N≥4,是M_S≥5.0地震的最优中短期预测指标,优势预测时间为200 d,同时R=0.48,R₀=0.40; ② 华南地区震群3个月频次N≥4,是M_S≥5.0地震较好的短期预测指标,优势预测时间为20 d,同时R=0.43,R₀=0.34; ③ 活跃时段的震群空间分布对M_S≥5.0地震的发震地点有一定的指示意义,但震群空间分布范围较大,在开展地震预测工作时还需结合其它预测方法确定危险区域; ④ 2019年广西北流5.2级和靖西5.2级地震前约8个月(中期),地球物理观测异常增加,地震前约6个月(中短期),M_L≥2.0震群活跃,地震前约3个月(短期),M_L≥3.0小震活跃度增强。地震活动与地球物理观测异常准同步活动,反映了震前区域应力场的增强。

Abstract:

This article studies the relationship between the frequency of earthquake swarms(M_L≥2.0)in different time windows and moderate-and strong-earthquakes in Southern China.After the predictive performance evaluation,we analyze the medium-and short-term,spatial,temporal characteristics of earthquake-swarm activity in South China.In addition,we discuss the seismogenic process based on the seismic activity and geophysical observation anomalies.The results show that:①The frequency of the earthquake swarms(M_L≥2.0)in Southern China in 2 months is equal to or greater than 4.This frequency is the optimal indicator predicting earthquakes(M_S≥5.0)in short-and medium-term.The most probable prediction period is 200 days(R=0.48,R₀=0.40); ②The frequency of the swarms(M_L≥2.0)in Southern China in 3 months is equal to or greater than 4.This frequency is the optimal indicator predicting earthquakes(M_S≥5.0)in short- and medium-term.The most probable prediction period is 20 days(R=0.43,R₀=0.34); ③The spatial distribution of active earthquake clusters has a certain indication of the epicenter of future earthquakes(M_S≥5.0)in South China,but the range of seismic clusters is relatively large,so when predicting earthquakes,one should refer to other prediction methods to determine the potential earthquake location; ④The number of short-term geophysical anomalies increased proximately 8 months before the Beiliu M_S5.2 earthquake and the Jingxi M_S5.2 earthquake in Guangxi.The seismic swarm was active about 6 months before the two earthquakes.And small earthquakes were active approximately 3 months before the two earthquakes.Earthquake activity synchronized with the geophysical anomalies,reflecting the enhancement of the regional stress field before the two earthquakes.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:

收稿日期:2024-06-30.
基金项目:国家自然科学基金联合基金(U2039205); 中国地震局震情跟踪项目(2024020502); 国家重点研发计划(2018YFE0109700).
第一作者简介:黎明晓(1978-),高级工程师,主要从事地震活动和综合预测研究.E-mail:lmx@seis.ac.cn.
通信作者简介:余怀忠(1975-),研究员,主要从事地震孕育机理和预测理论研究.E-mail:yuhz750216@sina.com.

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