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Title:: Relation between Strong Earthquakes and the Classification and Grade of the Precursor Data in West Yunnan,China

作者:: 刘翔¹; 2; 赵盼盼²; 和宏伟¹; 邬成栋¹; 付虹¹; (1.云南省地震局,昆明 650224; 2.中国科学技术大学地球与空间科学学院,合肥 230026)

Author(s):: LIU Xiang¹; 2; ZHAO Pan-pan²; HE Hong-wei¹; WU Cheng-dong¹; FU Hong¹; (1.Earthquake Administration of Yunnan Province,Kunming 650224,Yunnan,China)(2.School of Earth and Space Sciences,University of Science and Technology of China,Hefei 230026,Anhui,China)

Keywords:: earthquake prediction; precursor data; grade; classification; strong earthquake; West Yunnan

摘要:: 采用两种方式对1990年以来滇西地区前兆台网观测资料的质量进行了分类、分级判别。第一种方式是根据各测项资料数据波动变化的程度,按A、B、C三类定性地划分资料的优劣程度,然后对各类资料的质量及地震预报能力进行分析研究; 第二种方式是采用多种前兆异常提取方法对观测资料进行分析、处理,提取异常指标,根据各资料异常指标的映震效能,按A、B、C三个档次判定其优劣。研究结果表明,这两种方式得到的结果大致相同:(1)地形变和水位的观测资料质量最好,多为A类,具有较强的6级以上地震前兆信息;(2)水氡和水温观测资料质量一般,为B类,其异常信息主要对应5级地震,对6级以上地震的反应较迟钝;(3)水质、地磁、地电观测资料质量最差,为C类,但主要显示6级以上地震的异常信息。

Abstract:: We used two methods to study the classification and grade of the precursor data in West Yunnan since 1990.First,we qualitatively classified the precursor data as three types(A,B and C)according to the variation degree of the data,and analyzed their prediction ability by the grades.Second,we picked up the anomaly indexes of the precursor data using multifarious methods,and graded the data into three types(A,B and C)according to the prediction efficiency of the anomaly indexes.The results of two methods show to be approximate:(1)The quality of ground deformation and water level data is the best.Most of them are in Type A and they include more precursory information of M≥6 earthquakes.(2)The quality of water radon and water temperature is common.Most of them are in Type B and they mainly show the precursors of M≥5 earthquakes.(3)The quality of hydrochemistry,geomagnetic and geo-electricity is bad.Most of them are in Type C,but their precursors are mainly from M≥6 earthquakes.