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Title:: Application of Integrated Parameter R_t of Seismic Activity in Tianshan Mts,Xinjiang

Author(s):: WANG Qiong; QU Yan-jun; (Earthquake Administration of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Urumqi 830011,Xinjiang,China)

Keywords:: seismic activity; parameter combination; integrated parameter R_t of seismic activity; stability of seismic activity; test of prediction ability; Tianshan area

摘要:: 通过计算分析新疆北天山地区、南天山东段地区、南天山西段的柯坪块区及喀什—乌恰交汇区中强震前地震活动性总体状态参量R_t的变化特征,给出了各区中强震发生时间和强度基于R_t值的判定指标。R_t≤0.89可作为北天山地区1年内发生5.1～6.0级地震的指标; R_t≤0.79可作为南天山东段1年内发生5.4～6.0级地震的指标; R_t≤0.85可作为柯坪块区1.5年内发生6级地震的指标; R_t≤0.88可作为喀什—乌恰交汇区1年内发生6～7级地震的指标。

Abstract:: Tianshan Seismic Belt in China was divided into four areas:North Tianshan,the east of South Tianshan,Keping Block and the Kashi-Wuqia junction region.Based on the calculation and analysis result of R_t,the integrated parameter of seismic activity,before mid-strong earthquakes in the four areas,we gave the R_t-based criterion for judging the time and strength of mid-strong earthquakes in the areas.R_t≤0.89 can be as the judge index of M_S5.1-6.0 earthquake occurring within one year in North Tianshan; R_t≤0.79 can be as the one of M_S5.4-6.0 earthquake occurring within one year in the east of South Tianshan; R_t≤0.85 can be as that of M_S6.0 earthquake occurring within 1.5 years in Keping Block; R_t≤0.88 can be as that of M_S6-7 earthquake occurring within one year in the Kashi-Wuqia junction region.