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Title:: Study on Interval-Time Characteristics of Strong Earthquake Activities in Yunnan Region

Author(s):: QIN Jia-zheng; QIAN Xiao-dong; LIU Li-fang; (Earthquake Administration of Yunnan Province,Kunming 650224,Yunnan,China)

Keywords:: strong earthquake activities; time of the occurrence of strong earthquakes; recurrence period; Yunnan region

摘要:: 利用云南丰富的历史和现代强震活动资料,通过深入分析强震活动间隔时间的特点,建立了强震活动的时间预测方程t_f=a+bβ^α。根据云南地区M≥6地震的数据,分时段、分区域拟合了时间预测方程。以该方程式模拟公元1500～2008年500余年的强震活动的时间特征均取得了比较好的效果。其次,选用云南500余年的M≥6.5地震资料,用T(M)=D(T)/N(M)定义估算强震活动的复发周期,也取得了比较好的效果。分析认为,云南地区今后几年可能进入强震活动的危险时段。

Abstract:: Through abundant data of historical and modern strong earthquakes in Yunnan region,we analyze the time interval of strong earthquakes and established a time-prediction equation,t_f=a+bβ^α,for strong earthquakes.According to the data of M≥6 earthquakes in Yunnan region,we fit the time-prediction equation in different periods and in different parts of Yunnan.The equation is effective in simulating the temporal characteristics of strong earthquakes from 1500 to 2008.The formula T(M)=D(T)/N(M) is also effective in estimating the recurrence period of strong earthquakes,based on time interval data of M≥6.5 earthquakes about 500 years in Yunnan region.The advantages of time-prediction equation for strong earthquakes in the paper are of high precision,small error and full use of abundant history data.The statistical analysis shows that strong-earthquake activities in Yunnan region will probably come to a dangerous period in the future.