文章摘要

文章信息/Info

Title:: Effectiveness Test of Seismic Prediction of Water Level in Fluid Monitoring Well Based on the Molchan Diagram Method

作者:: 鲁明贵¹; 谷洪彪¹; 2; 巩浩波³; 张文旭¹; 迟宝明¹; (1.防灾科技学院,河北三河 065201; 2.河北省地震动力重点实验室,河北三河 065201; 3.重庆市地震局,重庆 401147)

Author(s):: LU Minggui¹; GU Hongbiao¹; 2; GONG Haobo³; ZHANG Wenxu¹; CHI Baoming¹; (1.Institute of Disaster Prevention,Sanhe 065201,Hebei,China)(2.Hebei Key Laboratory of Earthquake Dynamics,Sanhe 065201,Hebei,China)(3.Chongqing Earthquake Agency,Chongqing 401147,China)

Keywords:: cross-fault observation; earthquake forecasting effectiveness; monitoring conditions; groundwater; tectonic conditions; Beijing

摘要:: 为了探究水位异常和地震之间潜在的对应关系以及监测井水位的地震预测效能,通过差分法和水位固体潮加卸载比法对德阳井、剑川井、佐署井和门源井水位数据进行处理,并采用Molchan图表法对4口监测井水位的不同预测期和不同块体发生的地震进行预测效能检验。结果表明:两种方法处理后的Molchan图表法检测效能结果相似; 4口监测井水位在180 d内均有较好的预测效能,均对不同范围中强地震有一定预测效能,并且预测效能受板块内构造分布情况影响,对构造发育的区域预测效能更好。

Abstract:: In order to study the prediction efficiency of the water level in the observational wells,and to explore the relationship between the water-level anomaly and the earthquake,we process the observed water-level data of Deyang Well,Jianchuan Well,Zuoshu Well and Menyuan Well by the difference method and the tidal load-unloading ratio method.Then,using the Molchan chart,we test the prediction efficiency of the 4 monitoring wells for the prediction of the occurrence-time,and the magnitude of the earthquakes in different blocks.The results show that the water level in the 4 monitoring Wells are efficient for the prediction of earthquakes which may occur within 180 days,and effect for the prediction of the moderate- and strong-earthquakes within a certain range.The prediction efficiency is affected by the distribution of tectonic structures; in the structure-developed areas,the water-level anomaly is efficient for the earthquake prediction.