|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]鲁明贵,谷洪彪,巩浩波,等.基于Molchan图表法的流体监测井水位地震预测效能检验[J].地震研究,2024,47(02):200-211.[doi:10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2024.0011]
　LU Minggui,GU Hongbiao,GONG Haobo,et al.Effectiveness Test of Seismic Prediction of Water Level in Fluid Monitoring Well Based on the Molchan Diagram Method[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2024,47(02):200-211.[doi:10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2024.0011]
点击复制

基于Molchan图表法的流体监测井水位地震预测效能检验(PDF/HTML)

《地震研究》[ISSN:1000-0666/CN:53-1062/P]

卷:
47
期数:
2024年02期
页码:
200-211
栏目:
出版日期:
2024-06-01

文章信息/Info

Title:
Effectiveness Test of Seismic Prediction of Water Level in Fluid Monitoring Well Based on the Molchan Diagram Method
作者:
鲁明贵1; 谷洪彪1; 2; 巩浩波3; 张文旭1; 迟宝明1
(1.防灾科技学院,河北 三河 065201; 2.河北省地震动力重点实验室,河北 三河 065201; 3.重庆市地震局,重庆 401147)
Author(s):
LU Minggui1; GU Hongbiao1; 2; GONG Haobo3; ZHANG Wenxu1; CHI Baoming1
(1.Institute of Disaster Prevention,Sanhe 065201,Hebei,China)(2.Hebei Key Laboratory of Earthquake Dynamics,Sanhe 065201,Hebei,China)(3.Chongqing Earthquake Agency,Chongqing 401147,China)
关键词:
井水位;  水位异常识别;  Molchan图表法;  预测效能
Keywords:
cross-fault observation;  earthquake forecasting effectiveness;  monitoring conditions;  groundwater;  tectonic conditions;  Beijing
分类号:
P135.72
DOI:
10.20015/j.cnki.ISSN1000-0666.2024.0011
摘要:
为了探究水位异常和地震之间潜在的对应关系以及监测井水位的地震预测效能,通过差分法和水位固体潮加卸载比法对德阳井、剑川井、佐署井和门源井水位数据进行处理,并采用Molchan图表法对4口监测井水位的不同预测期和不同块体发生的地震进行预测效能检验。结果表明:两种方法处理后的Molchan图表法检测效能结果相似; 4口监测井水位在180 d内均有较好的预测效能,均对不同范围中强地震有一定预测效能,并且预测效能受板块内构造分布情况影响,对构造发育的区域预测效能更好。
Abstract:
In order to study the prediction efficiency of the water level in the observational wells,and to explore the relationship between the water-level anomaly and the earthquake,we process the observed water-level data of Deyang Well,Jianchuan Well,Zuoshu Well and Menyuan Well by the difference method and the tidal load-unloading ratio method.Then,using the Molchan chart,we test the prediction efficiency of the 4 monitoring wells for the prediction of the occurrence-time,and the magnitude of the earthquakes in different blocks.The results show that the water level in the 4 monitoring Wells are efficient for the prediction of earthquakes which may occur within 180 days,and effect for the prediction of the moderate- and strong-earthquakes within a certain range.The prediction efficiency is affected by the distribution of tectonic structures; in the structure-developed areas,the water-level anomaly is efficient for the earthquake prediction.

参考文献/References:


车用太,鱼金子.2006.地震地下流体学[M].北京:气象出版社,365-367,300-302.
Che Y T,Yu J Z.2006.Underground fluids and earthquake[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,365-367,300-302.(in Chinese)
邓起东,张培震,冉勇康,等.2002.中国活动构造基本特征[J].中国科学:地球科学,32(12):1020-1030.
Deng Q D,Zhang P Z,Rang Y K,et al.2002.Basic characteristics of active tectonics in China[J].Science China:Earth Sciences,32(12):1020-1030.(in Chinese)
付虹,刘自凤,胡小静,等.2021.2021年云南漾濞MS6.4地震异常跟踪分析[J].地震研究,44(3):301-308.
Fu H,Liu Z F,Hu X J,et al.2021.Tracking analysis of seismic anomalies of the 2021 Yangbi,Yunnan MS6.4 Earthquake[J].Journal of Seismological Research,44(3):301-308.(in Chinese)
黄春玲,程冬焱,杨静,等.2013.山西数字地下水位固体潮加卸载响应比与中强地震关系分析[J].山西地震,(3):11-17.
Huang C L,Cheng D Y,Yang J,et al.2013.Relationship between earth tidal LURR of digital groundwater observation in Shanxi and medium-strong earthquakes[J].Earthquake Research in ShanXi,(3):11-17.(in Chinese)
蒋骏,李胜乐,张雁滨,等.2000.EIS2000地震前兆信息处理与软件系统[M].北京:地震出版社,169-173.
Jiang J,Li S L,Zhang Y B,et al.200.EIS2000 earthquake precursor information processing and software system[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,169-173.(in Chinese)
兰双双,迟宝明.2011.汶川地震前地下水位固体潮加卸载响应比异常分析[J].地震研究,34(3):317-321.
Lan S S,Chi B M.2011.Analysis on earth tidal loading/unloading response ratio of groundwater-level before Wenchuan Earthquake[J].Journal of Seismological Research,34(3):317-321.(in Chinese)
马玉川,晏锐,胡小静.2021.云南洱源井水温在2021年漾濞MS6.4地震前的异常特征[J].地震学报,43(5):674-677.
Ma Y C,Yan R,Hu X J.2021.The anomaly characteristics of water temperature in the Eryuan well before the 2021 Yangbi MS6.4 earthquake in Yunnan,China[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,43(5):674-677.(in Chinese)
马震.2020.地震前地下水位LURR识别方法与应用[D].北京:中国地震局地震预测研究所,23-26.
Ma Z.2020.Identification method and application of LURR before earthquakes via groundwater level[D].Beijing:Institude of Earthquake Forecasting,China Earthquake Administration,23-26.(in Chinese)
青海省地震局.2005.青海省地震监测志[M].北京:地震出版社,146-147.
Qinghai Provincial Seismological Bureau.2005.Qinghai Province earthquake monitoring records[M].Beijing:Seismological press146-147.(in Chinese)
四川省地震局.2004.四川省地震监测志[M].成都:成都地图出版社,111-112.
Sichuan Provincial Seismological Bureau.2004.Sichuan Province earthquake monitoring records[M].Chengdu:Chengdu Map Publishing House:111-112.(in Chinese)
孙丽娜,齐玉妍,温超,等.2012.中长期地震预测中的PI算法改进研究及应用[J].地震学报,30(1):1-9.
Sun L N,Qi Y Y,Wen C,et al.2012.Application of improved PI Algorithm in Medium to Long-term Earthquake Prediction[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,30(1):1-9.(in Chinese)
孙其政,张国民,李宣瑚,等.1997.地下流体地震预报方法[M].北京:地震出版社.355-356.
Sun Q Zh,Zh G M,Li X H,et al.1997.Earthquake prediction methods for underground fluids[M].Beijing:Seismological Press.355-356.(in Chinese)
孙小龙,向阳,杨朋涛.2018.云南会泽井水位地震预测效能检验及其机理分析[J].地震学报,40(2):185-194.
Sun X L,Xiang Y,Yang P T.2018.Earthquake prediction efficiency inspection of water level in Huize well and its anomaly mechanism[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,40(2):185-194.(in Chinese)
万永芳,刘特培.2004.地下水位固体潮加卸载响应比分析及预测意义[J].华南地震,24(1):28-34.
Wan Y F,Liu T P.2004.Analysis on the results of loading/unloading response ratio of groundwater level earth tide and its significance in earthquake prediction[J].South China Journal of Seismology,24(1):28-34.(in Chinese)
汪发耀,杨积礼,杨开来,等.2020.门源地震台静水位和形变异常核实实例与思考[J].高原地震,32(3):50-55.
Wang F Y,Yang J L,Yang K L,et al.2020.Examples of water level and deformation abnormal verification in Menyuan seismic station and its reflections[J].Plateau Earthquake Research,32(3):50-55.(in Chinese)
王博,钟骏,王熠熙,等.2018.南北地震带北段流体资料地震预测效能检验[J].地震,38(1):147-156.
Wang B,Zhong J,Wang Y X,et al.2018.Testing the forecast efficiency of underground fluid observation in the North Segment of North-South Seismic Belt[J].Earthquake,38(1):147-156.(in Chinese)
王永刚,李滔.2021.玛多7.4级地震前后青海地下流体数据响应研究[J].高原地震,33(2):1-11.
Wang Y G,Li T.2021.Study on the response of underground fluid in Qinghai province to Maduo MS7.4 Earthquake[J].Plateau Earthquake Research,33(2):1-11.(in Chinese)
徐桂明,冯志生,唐振芳.2002.江苏地区地下水固体潮加卸载响应比的时空演变特征及预测意义[J].地震学刊,22(4):26-35.
Xu G M,Feng Z S,Tang Z F.2002.Characteristics of the temporal-spacial evolution of the loading/unloading response ratio of the ground water level to earth tides in Jiangsu region and its implications to earthquake prediction[J].Journal of Seismology,22(4):26-35.(in Chinese)
晏锐.2009.地震前兆观测资料分析[R]//中国地震局监测预报司.汶川8.0级地震科学研究报告.北京:地震出版社,170-193.
Yan R.2009.Analysis of earthquake precursor monitoring data[R]//Monitoring and Forecasting Department of China Earthquake Administration.Research Report on the Wenchuan M8.0 Earthquake.Beijing:Seismological Press,170-193.(in Chinese)
晏锐,田雷,王广才,等.2018.2008年汶川8.0级地震前地下流体异常回顾与统计特征分析[J].地球物理学报,61(5):1907-1921.
Yan R,Tian L,Wang G C,et al.2018.Review and statistically characteristic analysis of underground fluid anomalies prior to the 2008 Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,61(5):1907-1921.(in Chinese)
云南省地震局.2005.云南省地震监测志[M].北京:地震出版社,625-627.
Yunnan Provincial Seismological Bureau.2005.Yunnan Province earthquake monitoring records[M].Beijing:Seismological Press:625-627.(in Chinese)
张培震,邓起东,张国民,等.2003.中国大陆的强震活动与活动地块[J].中国科学:地球科学,33(S1):12-20.
Zhang P Z,Deng Q D,Zhang G M,et al.2003.Strong earthquake activity and active blocks in Chinese Mainland[J].Science China:Earth Sciences,33(S1):12-20.(in Chinese)
钟骏,王博,周志华,等.2021.2021年青海玛多MS7.4地震前地下流体异常特征分析[J].中国地震,37(3):574-585.
Zhong J,Wang B,Zhou Z H,et al.2021Analysis on anomaly characteristics of underground fluid before 2021 Maduo MS7.4 Earthquake in Qinghai Province[J].Earthquake Research in China,37(3):574-585.(in Chinese)
Lai G J,Jiang C S,Wang W L,et al.2021.Correlation between the water temperature and water level data at the Lijiang well in Yunnan,China,and its implication for local earthquake prediction[J].Eur Phys J Special Topics,230:275-285.
Molchan G M.1990.Strategies in strong earthquake prediction[J].Phys Earth Planet Inter,61(1/2):84-98.
Zechar J D,Jordan T H.2008.Testing alarm-based earthquake predictions[J].Geophys J Inter,172(2):715-724.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2022-06-08.
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41877205); 中国地震局地震科技星火计划项目(XH19070).
第一作者简介:鲁明贵(2001-),本科生在读,主要从事地震地下流体研究.E-mail:1907993011@qq.com.
通信作者简介:谷洪彪(1984-),教授,博士,主要从事地震地下流体研究.E-mail:hongbiaosw@126.com.
更新日期/Last Update: 2024-03-20