地震研究

甘肃东南部水氡中期异常特征研究^*

杨兴悦^1,2,王燕³,缑亚江³,杨斐³,田文通³,李旭生³,姚玉霞³,范志伟⁴

(1.中国地震局兰州地震研究所,兰州 730000; 2.甘肃省地震局武山地震台,甘肃天水 741308; 3.甘肃省地震局,兰州 730000; 4.河北省地震局,石家庄050021)

Study on Mid-term Anomalies of Radon in Southeast Gansu Province

YANG Xing-yue^1,2,WANG Yan³,GOU Ya-jiang³,YANG Fei³,TIAN Wen-tong³,LI Xu-sheng³,YAO Yu-xia³,FAN Zhi-wei⁴

(1.Lanzhou Institute of Seismology,CEA,Lanzhou 730000,Gansu,China)(2.Wushan Seismic Station,Earthquake Administration of Gansu Province,Tianshui 741308,Gansu,China)(3.Earthquake Administration of Gansu Province,Lanzhou 730000,Gansu,China)(4.Earthquake Administration of Hebei Province,Shijiazhuang 050021,Hebei,China)

Keywords：Radon; subordinate function; variation rate; trend rate; precursory anomaly; Southeast Gansu Province

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参考文献

利用从属函数、变差率以及趋势速率方法提取甘肃东南部水氡观测资料的地震前兆异常。结果表明,1984年1月至2009年12月,7项水氡资料共出现47次从属函数异常、45次变差率异常和39次趋势速率异常。其中,33次从属函数异常、35次变差率异常和30次趋势速率异常很好地对应了甘肃及邻区震中距在33～585 km范围内发生的5～8级地震。通过分析异常特征及其与地震的关系,提出中强震和强震时间预测的指标与方法,得出甘肃东南部水氡从属函数计算的经验常数,以及变差率和趋势速率的异常阈值。

Using the methods of subordinate function,variation rate and trend rate,we extract the earthquake precursory anomalies from observational data of Radon in southeast Gansu Province.The result indicates that 7 items of radon data include 47 subordinate-function anomalies,45 variation-rate anomalies and 39 trend-rate anomalies from January 1984 to December 2009.Among them,33 subordinate-function anomalies,35 variation-rate anomalies and 30 trend-rate anomalies corresponded with the earthquakes M_S5-8 that ever hit Gansu Province and the adjacent region within 33 to 585 km.By the analysis of the features of these anomaies and their relation to the earthquakes,the method of time prediction for the moderate-strong and strong earthquake were proposed,and the empirical constant,variation rate and threshold value of trend-rate anomaly are obtained from Radon in southeast Gansu Province.

引言
1 前兆资料及地震目录的选取
2 异常提取方法
3 典型实例
4 前兆异常特征
5 中期时间预测指标
6 结论与讨论

图1 甘肃东南部地下流体监测台站分布图<br/>Fig.1 Distribution of underground fluid monitoring stations in southeast Gansu Province

图1 甘肃东南部地下流体监测台站分布图
Fig.1 Distribution of underground fluid monitoring stations in southeast Gansu Province

表1 1987～2009年甘肃及邻区发生的MS≥5.0地震<br/>Tab.1 MS≥5.0 Earthquakes in Gansu Province and the adjacent regions from 1987 to 2009

表1 1987～2009年甘肃及邻区发生的MS≥5.0地震
Tab.1 MS≥5.0 Earthquakes in Gansu Province and the adjacent regions from 1987 to 2009

表2 甘肃东南部地区水氡中期异常判定方法<br/>Tab.2 Mid-term anomalies decision method of Radon in southeast Gansu Province

表2 甘肃东南部地区水氡中期异常判定方法
Tab.2 Mid-term anomalies decision method of Radon in southeast Gansu Province

图2 甘肃东南部水氡月均值曲线(a)武山1号泉;(b)武都殿沟;(c)武山22号井; (d)平凉附件厂;(e)通渭温泉;(f)西和芦河; (g)清水温泉<br/>Fig.2 Curves of month mean values of Radon in southeast Gansu Province (a)No.1 spring of Wushan station;(b)Diangou observing spot of Wudu station;(c)observing spot of No.22 well of Wushan station;(d)Fujianchang observing spot of Pingliang station;(e)observing spot of Tongwei spring;(f)Luhe observing spot of Xihe station;(g)Qingshui spring

图2 甘肃东南部水氡月均值曲线(a)武山1号泉;(b)武都殿沟;(c)武山22号井; (d)平凉附件厂;(e)通渭温泉;(f)西和芦河; (g)清水温泉
Fig.2 Curves of month mean values of Radon in southeast Gansu Province (a)No.1 spring of Wushan station;(b)Diangou observing spot of Wudu station;(c)observing spot of No.22 well of Wushan station;(d)Fujianchang observing spot of Pingliang station;(e)observing spot of Tongwei spring;(f)Luhe observing spot of Xihe station;(g)Qingshui spring

图3 武山22号井水氡月均值(a)、从属函数(b)、变差率(c)及趋势速率值(d)异常曲线<br/>Fig.3 Abnormal curves of month-mean values(a),subordinate function(b),variation rate(c)and trend rate(d)of Radon in No.22 well at Wushan station

图3 武山22号井水氡月均值(a)、从属函数(b)、变差率(c)及趋势速率值(d)异常曲线
Fig.3 Abnormal curves of month-mean values(a),subordinate function(b),variation rate(c)and trend rate(d)of Radon in No.22 well at Wushan station

图4 甘肃东南部水氡从属函数异常曲线(a)武山1号泉;(b)武都殿沟;(c)武山22号井; (d)平凉附件厂;(e)通渭温泉;(f)西和芦河; (g)清水温泉<br/>Fig.4 Abnormal curves of subordinate function of Radon in southeast Gansu Province (a)No.1 spring of Wushan station;(b)Diangou observing spot of Wudu station;(c)observing spot of No.22 well of Wushan station;(d)Fujianchang observing spot of Pingliang station;(e)observing spot of Tongwei spring;(f)Luhe observing spot of Xihe station;(g)Qingshui spring

图4 甘肃东南部水氡从属函数异常曲线(a)武山1号泉;(b)武都殿沟;(c)武山22号井; (d)平凉附件厂;(e)通渭温泉;(f)西和芦河; (g)清水温泉
Fig.4 Abnormal curves of subordinate function of Radon in southeast Gansu Province (a)No.1 spring of Wushan station;(b)Diangou observing spot of Wudu station;(c)observing spot of No.22 well of Wushan station;(d)Fujianchang observing spot of Pingliang station;(e)observing spot of Tongwei spring;(f)Luhe observing spot of Xihe station;(g)Qingshui spring

表3 甘肃东南部水氡从属函数中期异常特征统计表<br/>Tab.3 Feature of the mid-term anomalies of Suberdinate function of Radon in Southeast Gansu Province

表3 甘肃东南部水氡从属函数中期异常特征统计表
Tab.3 Feature of the mid-term anomalies of Suberdinate function of Radon in Southeast Gansu Province

图5 甘肃东南部水氡变差率异常曲线(a)武山1号泉;(b)武都殿沟;(c)武山22号井; (d)平凉附件厂;(e)通渭温泉;(f)西和芦河; (g)清水温泉<br/>Fig.5 Abnormal curves of variation rate of Radon in southeast area of Gansu Province

图5 甘肃东南部水氡变差率异常曲线(a)武山1号泉;(b)武都殿沟;(c)武山22号井; (d)平凉附件厂;(e)通渭温泉;(f)西和芦河; (g)清水温泉
Fig.5 Abnormal curves of variation rate of Radon in southeast area of Gansu Province

图6 甘肃东南部水氡趋势速率异常曲线(a)武山1号泉;(b)武都殿沟;(c)武山22号井; (d)平凉附件厂;(e)通渭温泉;(f)西和芦河; (g)清水温泉<br/>Fig.6 Abnormal curves of trend rate of Radon in southeast area of Gansu Province (a)No.1 spring of Wushan station;(b)Diangou observing spot of Wudu station;(c)observing spot of No.22 well of Wushan station;(d)Fujianchang observing spot of Pingliang station;(e)observing spot of Tongwei spring;(f)Luhe observing spot of Xihe station;(g)Qingshui spring

图6 甘肃东南部水氡趋势速率异常曲线(a)武山1号泉;(b)武都殿沟;(c)武山22号井; (d)平凉附件厂;(e)通渭温泉;(f)西和芦河; (g)清水温泉
Fig.6 Abnormal curves of trend rate of Radon in southeast area of Gansu Province (a)No.1 spring of Wushan station;(b)Diangou observing spot of Wudu station;(c)observing spot of No.22 well of Wushan station;(d)Fujianchang observing spot of Pingliang station;(e)observing spot of Tongwei spring;(f)Luhe observing spot of Xihe station;(g)Qingshui spring