基于空间平滑法的武汉城市圈地震危险性概率分析*

(中国地震局地震研究所,湖北 武汉 430071)

空间平滑法; 地震危险性分析; 武汉城市圈

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis in Wuhan Metropolitan Region Based on Spatial Smoothing Method
WEI Yun-hao, YAO Yun-sheng, Wang Qiu-liang, Tan Yu-juan

(Institute of Seismology of China Earthquake Administration, Wuhan 430071,China)

Spatial Smoothing method; probabilistic seismic hazard analysis; Wuhan Metropolitan region

备注

以武汉城市圈为研究对象,利用空间平滑方法建立了区域的两个地震活动性模型,计算了50年超越概率10%的基岩峰值加速度分布图,与地震动参数区划图的对比表明,其结果能合理反映区域的地震危险性水平。在弱震活动区,基于空间平滑法的地震危险性概率计算能给出可靠的地震动参数。

To conduct a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of Wuhan Metropolitan region, we build two seismicity models by Spatial Smoothing method, and calculate the contour distribution of the peak ground acceleration of bedrock within 10 percent probability of exceedance in 50 years in Wuhan. Compared with the Seismic Ground Motion Parameter Zonation Map of China, the results we obtain can more reasonably reflect the seismic hazard of the area. In the low seismicity area, the ground motion parameters calculated through probabilistic seismic hazard based on Spatial Smoothing method is reliable.