地震研究

根据时间—震级可预报模式研究川滇地块边界断裂系统的地震复发规律,利用历史地震记录和断层滑动速率资料得到了相应的时间可预报统计模型和震级可预报统计模型,并对川滇地块边界断裂带8个震源段在未来10年内的强震复发危险性进行概率评估。计算结果表明,综合危险率K值最高的3个震源段依次为小江断裂带(S₅段)、红河、曲江、石屏断裂带(S₆段)和安宁河—则木河以及大凉山断裂带(S₃段),计算得到这些断裂带下次发生地震的震级分别为7.4、7.1和7.1级; 其中S₅、S₃段发震位置位于南东边界,S₆段位于南西边界,表明未来10年内川滇地块南部边界发震的危险性高于北部边界; 预期的下次发生的最高震级地震位于南东边界。

The law of earthquake recurrence of the fault system in the boundary of Sichuan-Yunnan block is studied based on the Time- and Magnitude- Predictable Model,and the corresponding time- and magnitude- predictable statistical models have been obtained by using the historical earthquake records and the fault slip rate data,then the strong earthquake recurrence probabilities of 8 seismic source sections in the Sichuan-Yunnan block boundary fault zone are assessed in next 10 years. The calculation results show that the 3 seismic source sections of the highest integrated risk rate K are the Xiaojiang Fault Zone(S5 segment),Honghe,Qujiang,Shiping Fault Zones(S6 segment),and Anninghe-Zemuhe,Daliangshan Fault Zones(S3 segment),and the magnitude of the next earthquake occurred on these three subsections are 7.4,7.1 and 7.1 respectively. The S5 and S3 segments are located in the southeast boundary and the S6 segment is located in the southwest boundary,which showed that the reoccurrence risk in southern Sichuan-Yunnan block boundary is higher than that in northern boundary in next 10 years,and the next expected earthquake with maximum magnitude will be occarred in the southeast boundary.

引言
1 研究方法
2 川滇地块边界震源段的划分
3 时间—震级可预报统计模型
4 时间相依的概率地震危险性
5 结论

表1 川滇地块边界断裂带震源段基本信息<br/>Tab.1 The basic information of seismic source sections of fault zone in Sichuan-Yunnan block boundary

表1 川滇地块边界断裂带震源段基本信息
Tab.1 The basic information of seismic source sections of fault zone in Sichuan-Yunnan block boundary

图1 川滇块体边界震源段划分和M≥6.5地震分布<br/>Fig.1 The division of seismic source sections in Sichuan-Yunnan block boundary and the location of M≥6.5 earthquakes

图1 川滇块体边界震源段划分和M≥6.5地震分布
Fig.1 The division of seismic source sections in Sichuan-Yunnan block boundary and the location of M≥6.5 earthquakes

表2 用于多元回归计算的数据<br/>Tab.2 The data for multiple regression calculation

表2 用于多元回归计算的数据
Tab.2 The data for multiple regression calculation

图2 回归计算的残差分布直方图<br/>(a)实际的复发时间间隔的对数lnT与式(8)得到的估计值lnTt的残差分布直方图(虚曲线代表均值为0,方差=<br/>σ2(0.292)的正态分布密度函数);(b)实际事件震级M与式(9)得到的估计值Mf的残差分布直方图<br/>Fig.2 The histogram of residual distribution of regression calculation (a)the histogram of residual distribution between the observed recurrence interval lnT and the theoretical lnTt from formula(8); (b)the histogram of residual distribution between the observed M and the theoretical Mf from formula(9)

图2 回归计算的残差分布直方图
(a)实际的复发时间间隔的对数lnT与式(8)得到的估计值lnTt的残差分布直方图(虚曲线代表均值为0,方差=
σ2(0.292)的正态分布密度函数);(b)实际事件震级M与式(9)得到的估计值Mf的残差分布直方图
Fig.2 The histogram of residual distribution of regression calculation (a)the histogram of residual distribution between the observed recurrence interval lnT and the theoretical lnTt from formula(8); (b)the histogram of residual distribution between the observed M and the theoretical Mf from formula(9)

表3 川滇地块边界断裂带震源段未来10年内(2014～2024年)的地震复发概率及危险性<br/>Tab.3 Earthquake recurrence probabilities and risks of seismic source sections of fault zone in Sichuan-Yunnan block boundary in the next 10 years(2014～2024)

表3 川滇地块边界断裂带震源段未来10年内(2014～2024年)的地震复发概率及危险性
Tab.3 Earthquake recurrence probabilities and risks of seismic source sections of fault zone in Sichuan-Yunnan block boundary in the next 10 years(2014～2024)

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备注

引言

1 研究方法

2 川滇地块边界震源段的划分

3 时间—震级可预报统计模型

4 时间相依的概率地震危险性

5 结论

期刊信息