地震研究

针对2000—2020年南北地震带21个MS≥6.0地震序列,利用推定最大余震震级法,采用不同的最小完备震级MC和b值计算方法,分别给出了实际最大余震震级的估计值,分析了估算效果。结果显示:从整体上看,推定最大余震震级法可以给出实际最大余震震级的有效估计值,而且随着时间推移,估计误差逐步减小、趋于稳定。从计算方法来看,使用GFT和修正MAXC的混合方法计算最小完备震级,并且采用最大似然法计算b值时,推定最大余震震级法的估算误差较小,且估算正确的结果较多。

Using the method of the inferred magnitude of the largest aftershock,and different methods of calculating the minimum magnitude of completeness(MC)and b-value,we estimate the magnitude of the largest aftershocks of 21 MS≥6.0 earthquake sequences in the North-South Seismic Belt from 2000 to 2020,and verify the results.We find that generally,the method of the inferred magnitude can help to accurately estimate the magnitude of the largest aftershock.The estimation error gradually decreases and tends to be unvariant along with time.When we mix the goodness of fit test(GFT)with the modified maximum curvature method(MAXC)to calculate the minimum magnitude of completeness,and use the maximum likelihood method to calculate b-value,the estimation error of the magnitude of the largest aftershock is very small and there are more correct results.

引言
1 计算方法
2 数据和结果
3 讨论
4 结论

表1 2000—2020年南北地震带MS≥6.0主震基本信息<br/>Tab.1 Mainshocks with MS≥6.0 in the North-South Seismic Belt from 2000 to 2020

表1 2000—2020年南北地震带MS≥6.0主震基本信息
Tab.1 Mainshocks with MS≥6.0 in the North-South Seismic Belt from 2000 to 2020

图1 南北地震带MS≥6.0地震震中分布<br/>Fig.1 Locations of MS≥6.0 earthquakes in the North-South Seismic Belt

图1 南北地震带MS≥6.0地震震中分布
Fig.1 Locations of MS≥6.0 earthquakes in the North-South Seismic Belt

图2 4种组合方法得出的ΔM[TX-]E(a)和CM(b) <br/>Fig.2 ΔM[TX-]E(a)and CM(b)curves resulted from 4 combinations

图2 4种组合方法得出的ΔM[TX-]E(a)和CM(b)
Fig.2 ΔM[TX-]E(a)and CM(b)curves resulted from 4 combinations

表2 4种组合方法得出的MS≥6.0地震序列的MC和MILA<br/>Tab.2 MC and MILA for MS≥6.0 earthquake sequences by using 4 combinations

表2 4种组合方法得出的MS≥6.0地震序列的MC和MILA
Tab.2 MC and MILA for MS≥6.0 earthquake sequences by using 4 combinations

表3 使用GFT+ML得出的21个MS≥6.0地震序列的MC和MILA<br/>Tab.3 Results of MC and MILA for 21 MS≥6.0 earthquake sequences by using GFT and ML

表3 使用GFT+ML得出的21个MS≥6.0地震序列的MC和MILA
Tab.3 Results of MC and MILA for 21 MS≥6.0 earthquake sequences by using GFT and ML

图3 使用GFT+ML组合方法计算景谷MS6.6地震后1 d(a)和90 d(b)余震序列的G-R定律拟合结果<br/>Fig.3 Fitting results of G-R law obtained by GFT and ML 1 in day(a) and 90 days(b)after the Jinggu MS6.6 earthquake

图3 使用GFT+ML组合方法计算景谷MS6.6地震后1 d(a)和90 d(b)余震序列的G-R定律拟合结果
Fig.3 Fitting results of G-R law obtained by GFT and ML 1 in day(a) and 90 days(b)after the Jinggu MS6.6 earthquake

图4 采用GFT+LS组合方法计算雅江MS6.0地震后1 d不同震级上限的拟合结果<br/>Fig.4 Fitting results of G-R law obtained by GFT and LS with different upper limits of magnitude in 1 day after the Yajiang MS6.0 earthquake

图4 采用GFT+LS组合方法计算雅江MS6.0地震后1 d不同震级上限的拟合结果
Fig.4 Fitting results of G-R law obtained by GFT and LS with different upper limits of magnitude in 1 day after the Yajiang MS6.0 earthquake

图5 使用MAXC+LS组合方法得到的景谷MS6.6地震后1 d的G-R定律拟合结果<br/>Fig.5 Fitting results of G-R law obtained by MAXC and LS combination in 1 day after the JingguMS6.6 earthquake

图5 使用MAXC+LS组合方法得到的景谷MS6.6地震后1 d的G-R定律拟合结果
Fig.5 Fitting results of G-R law obtained by MAXC and LS combination in 1 day after the JingguMS6.6 earthquake

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备注

引言

1 计算方法

2 数据和结果

3 讨论

4 结论

期刊信息